Laios Alexandros, Kalampokis Evangelos, Mamalis Marios Evangelos, Thangavelu Amudha, Hutson Richard, Broadhead Tim, Nugent David, De Jong Diederick
Department of Gynaecologic Oncology, St James's University Hospital, Leeds LS9 7TF, UK.
Information Systems Lab, Department of Business Administration, University of Macedonia, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece.
Cancers (Basel). 2023 Nov 13;15(22):5386. doi: 10.3390/cancers15225386.
The Surgical Complexity Score (SCS) has been widely used to describe the surgical effort during advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) cytoreduction. Referring to a variety of multi-visceral resections, it best combines the numbers with the complexity of the sub-procedures. Nevertheless, not all potential surgical procedures are described by this score. Lately, the European Society for Gynaecological Oncology (ESGO) has established standard outcome quality indicators pertinent to achieving complete cytoreduction (CC0). There is a need to define what weight all these surgical sub-procedures comprising CC0 would be given. Prospectively collected data from 560 surgically cytoreduced advanced stage EOC patients were analysed at a UK tertiary referral centre.We adapted the structured ESGO ovarian cancer report template. We employed the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to model a long list of surgical sub-procedures. We applied the Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP) framework to provide global (cohort) explainability. We used Cox regression for survival analysis and constructed Kaplan-Meier curves. The XGBoost model predicted CC0 with an acceptable accuracy (area under curve [AUC] = 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.63-0.76). Visual quantification of the feature importance for the prediction of CC0 identified upper abdominal peritonectomy (UAP) as the most important feature, followed by regional lymphadenectomies. The UAP best correlated with bladder peritonectomy and diaphragmatic stripping (Pearson's correlations > 0.5). Clear inflection points were shown by pelvic and para-aortic lymph node dissection and ileocecal resection/right hemicolectomy, which increased the probability for CC0. When UAP was solely added to a composite model comprising of engineered features, it substantially enhanced its predictive value (AUC = 0.80, CI = 0.75-0.84). The UAP was predictive of poorer progression-free survival (HR = 1.76, CI 1.14-2.70, P: 0.01) but not overall survival (HR = 1.06, CI 0.56-1.99, P: 0.86). The SCS did not have significant survival impact. Machine Learning allows for operational feature selection by weighting the relative importance of those surgical sub-procedures that appear to be more predictive of CC0. Our study identifies UAP as the most important procedural predictor of CC0 in surgically cytoreduced advanced-stage EOC women. The classification model presented here can potentially be trained with a larger number of samples to generate a robust digital surgical reference in high output tertiary centres. The upper abdominal quadrants should be thoroughly inspected to ensure that CC0 is achievable.
手术复杂性评分(SCS)已被广泛用于描述晚期上皮性卵巢癌(EOC)细胞减灭术中的手术难度。参照各种多脏器切除术,它能最好地将手术数量与子手术的复杂性结合起来。然而,并非所有潜在的外科手术都能用这个评分来描述。最近,欧洲妇科肿瘤学会(ESGO)制定了与实现完全细胞减灭(CC0)相关的标准结局质量指标。有必要确定构成CC0的所有这些外科子手术应赋予何种权重。在英国一家三级转诊中心,对前瞻性收集的560例接受手术细胞减灭的晚期EOC患者的数据进行了分析。我们采用了结构化的ESGO卵巢癌报告模板。我们使用极端梯度提升(XGBoost)算法对一长串外科子手术进行建模。我们应用Shapley加法解释(SHAP)框架来提供全局(队列)可解释性。我们使用Cox回归进行生存分析并构建Kaplan-Meier曲线。XGBoost模型预测CC0的准确率可以接受(曲线下面积[AUC]=0.70;95%置信区间[CI]=0.63-0.76)。对预测CC0的特征重要性进行可视化量化,确定上腹部腹膜切除术(UAP)是最重要的特征,其次是区域淋巴结清扫术。UAP与膀胱腹膜切除术和膈肌剥脱术相关性最好(Pearson相关性>0.5)。盆腔和腹主动脉旁淋巴结清扫术以及回盲部切除术/右半结肠切除术显示出明显的拐点,这增加了实现CC0的可能性。当仅将UAP添加到由工程特征组成的复合模型中时,它显著提高了其预测价值(AUC=0.80,CI=0.75-0.84)。UAP可预测无进展生存期较差(HR=1.76,CI 1.14-2.70,P:0.01),但对总生存期无影响(HR=1.06,CI 0.56-1.99,P:0.86)。SCS对生存没有显著影响。机器学习允许通过权衡那些似乎对CC0更具预测性的外科子手术的相对重要性来进行操作特征选择。我们的研究确定UAP是接受手术细胞减灭的晚期EOC女性中CC0最重要的手术预测指标。这里提出的分类模型可能可以用更多的样本进行训练,以在高产量的三级中心生成一个强大的数字手术参考。应彻底检查上腹部象限,以确保能够实现CC0。