Hauer E, Gårder P
Accid Anal Prev. 1986 Dec;18(6):471-81. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(86)90020-5.
The use of near-misses and conflicts as an indirect measure of safety in widespread. The Traffic Conflicts Technique is one procedure for the indirect measurement of safety which has achieved a degree of formalization and attained a measure of popularity in many countries. However, doubts about the validity of the Traffic Conflicts Technique persist. In this paper we examine the conceptual foundations of indirect safety measurement when as data serve observation of events such as near-misses or conflicts. The key problem addressed is that of "validity." A definition of what validity is to mean is suggested. The statistical machinery for the measurement of validity on the basis of empirical evidence is formulated and tested. With this, it may now be possible to move towards rational concensus about the potential of the Traffic Conflicts Technique and similar procedures for the indirect measurement of safety. As a by-product of the analytical results, a yardstick has been created by which to judge the relative performance of the many extant variants of the Traffic Conflicts Technique.
将“险些发生的事故”和冲突用作安全的间接衡量指标的做法很普遍。交通冲突技术是一种用于安全间接测量的方法，它已经实现了一定程度的形式化，并在许多国家受到一定程度的欢迎。然而，对交通冲突技术有效性的质疑依然存在。在本文中，我们研究了以诸如“险些发生的事故”或冲突等事件的观察数据作为间接安全测量的概念基础。所解决的关键问题是“有效性”问题。提出了有效性意味着什么的定义。制定并测试了基于经验证据测量有效性的统计机制。有了这个，现在也许有可能就交通冲突技术以及类似的安全间接测量程序的潜力达成合理的共识。作为分析结果的一个副产品，创建了一个衡量标准，用以评判交通冲突技术众多现有变体的相对性能。
