Kwiatek G, Martínez-Garzón P, Becker D, Dresen G, Cotton F, Beroza G C, Acarel D, Ergintav S, Bohnhoff M
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany.
Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
Nat Commun. 2023 Nov 28;14(1):7534. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-42419-8.
Short term prediction of earthquake magnitude, time, and location is currently not possible. In some cases, however, documented observations have been retrospectively considered as precursory. Here we present seismicity transients starting approx. 8 months before the 2023 M 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake on the East Anatolian Fault Zone. Seismicity is composed of isolated spatio-temporal clusters within 65 km of future epicentre, displaying non-Poissonian inter-event time statistics, magnitude correlations and low Gutenberg-Richter b-values. Local comparable seismic transients have not been observed, at least since 2014. Close to epicentre and during the weeks prior to its rupture, only scarce seismic activity was observed. The trends of seismic preparatory attributes for this earthquake follow those previously documented in both laboratory stick-slip tests and numerical models of heterogeneous earthquake rupture affecting multiple fault segments. More comprehensive earthquake monitoring together with long-term seismic records may facilitate recognizing earthquake preparation processes from other regional deformation transients.
目前还无法对地震的震级、时间和地点进行短期预测。然而，在某些情况下，已记录的观测结果被追溯视为前兆。在此，我们展示了2023年东安纳托利亚断层带上发生的7.8级卡赫拉曼马拉什地震前约8个月开始的地震活动瞬变。地震活动由未来震中65公里范围内孤立的时空簇组成，显示出非泊松事件间时间统计、震级相关性和低古登堡-里希特b值。至少自2014年以来，尚未观察到局部类似的地震瞬变。靠近震中及其破裂前的几周内，仅观测到稀少的地震活动。此次地震的地震准备属性趋势与先前在实验室粘滑试验和影响多个断层段的非均匀地震破裂数值模型中记录的趋势一致。更全面的地震监测以及长期地震记录可能有助于从其他区域变形瞬变中识别地震准备过程。
