Jia Zhe, Jin Zeyu, Marchandon Mathilde, Ulrich Thomas, Gabriel Alice-Agnes, Fan Wenyuan, Shearer Peter, Zou Xiaoyu, Rekoske John, Bulut Fatih, Garagon Aslı, Fialko Yuri
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 80539 Munich, Germany.
Science. 2023 Sep;381(6661):985-990. doi: 10.1126/science.adi0685. Epub 2023 Aug 3.
The destructive 2023 moment magnitude () 7.8-7.7 earthquake doublet ruptured multiple segments of the East Anatolian Fault system in Turkey. We integrated multiscale seismic and space-geodetic observations with multifault kinematic inversions and dynamic rupture modeling to unravel the events' complex rupture history and stress-mediated fault interactions. Our analysis reveals three subshear slip episodes during the initial 7.8 earthquake with a delayed rupture initiation to the southwest. The 7.7 event occurred 9 hours later with a larger slip and supershear rupture on its western branch. Mechanically consistent dynamic models accounting for fault interactions can explain the unexpected rupture paths and require a heterogeneous background stress. Our results highlight the importance of combining near- and far-field observations with data-driven and physics-based models for seismic hazard assessment.
2023年发生的具有破坏性的矩震级（Mw）7.8 - 7.7级双震，致使土耳其东安纳托利亚断裂系统的多个区段破裂。我们将多尺度地震和空间大地测量观测与多断层运动学反演及动态破裂建模相结合，以梳理这些事件复杂的破裂历史和应力介导的断层相互作用。我们的分析揭示，在最初的7.8级地震期间有三次亚剪切滑动事件，破裂起始延迟至西南部。9小时后发生的7.7级地震在其西支上有更大的滑动和超剪切破裂。考虑断层相互作用的力学上一致的动态模型能够解释意外的破裂路径，并且需要非均匀的背景应力。我们的结果凸显了将近场和远场观测与数据驱动及基于物理的模型相结合用于地震危险性评估的重要性。
