Holinger P C, Offer D, Ostrov E
Am J Psychiatry. 1987 Feb;144(2):215-9. doi: 10.1176/ajp.144.2.215.
The authors found significant positive correlations between the suicide and homicide rates for 15-24-year-olds and the proportion of 15-24-year-olds in the U.S. population from 1933 to 1982. Significant negative correlations were found for most adult age groups (35-64 years). Since future numbers of adolescents and adults can be estimated on the basis of current population data for children and preadolescents, the epidemiologic patterns for suicide and homicide may be predictable for certain age groups. However, methodologic problems are inherent in using national mortality and population data, and many years are necessary to evaluate such epidemiologic propositions.
作者发现，1933年至1982年期间，15至24岁人群的自杀率和凶杀率与该年龄段人群在美国人口中所占比例之间存在显著正相关。在大多数成年人年龄组（35至64岁）中发现了显著负相关。由于可以根据当前儿童和青少年前期的人口数据估算未来青少年和成年人的数量，因此某些年龄组的自杀和凶杀的流行病学模式可能是可预测的。然而，使用国家死亡率和人口数据存在固有的方法学问题，需要很多年才能评估此类流行病学命题。
