德国在新冠大流行和俄乌战争期间的自杀趋势。
Suicide trends in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
机构信息
Department of Child- and Adolescent Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, University Hospital Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.
Department of Child- and Adolescent Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, University Hospital Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.
出版信息
Psychiatry Res. 2023 Dec;330:115555. doi: 10.1016/j.psychres.2023.115555. Epub 2023 Oct 27.
AIMS
The later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic overlaps with geopolitical and economic consequences from the Ukraine war. Financial hardship and concerns about gas supply may add to pandemic factors and lead to increased suicide rates in Germany.
METHODS
Age- and sex-stratified suicide data from police crime statistics covering 35 % of the German population were used for an interrupted time-series analysis and for a projection of total German suicides in 2022.
RESULTS
For both sexes, a trend reversal from constant or declining suicide rates to an increase was observed. This increase is particularly pronounced in 2022 and mainly relates to the 60+ age group that is highly vulnerable to suicide. The projection of the overall German suicide rate is at a level last observed in 2015.
CONCLUSIONS
The key challenge now is to combat potential causes of this rise in suicide rates to avert the emerging upward trend.
目的
新冠大流行的后期与乌克兰战争带来的地缘政治和经济后果相重叠。经济困难和对天然气供应的担忧可能会增加大流行因素，并导致德国自杀率上升。
方法
利用涵盖德国 35%人口的警方犯罪统计数据中的年龄和性别分层自杀数据，进行了中断时间序列分析，并对 2022 年德国总自杀人数进行了预测。
结果
两性的自杀率都出现了从稳定或下降到上升的趋势逆转。这种增长在 2022 年尤为明显，主要与极易自杀的 60 岁以上年龄组有关。对德国整体自杀率的预测处于 2015 年以来的最高水平。
结论
目前的主要挑战是应对自杀率上升的潜在原因，以避免出现新的上升趋势。
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