文献检索文档翻译深度研究
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
邀请有礼套餐&价格历史记录

新学期,新优惠

限时优惠:9月1日-9月22日

30天高级会员仅需29元

1天体验卡首发特惠仅需5.99元

了解详情
不再提醒
插件&应用
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
高级版
套餐订阅购买积分包
AI 工具
文献检索文档翻译深度研究
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利:CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2025

Comparative impact assessment of COVID-19 policy interventions in five South Asian countries using reported and estimated unreported death counts during 2020-2021.

作者信息

Kundu Ritoban, Datta Jyotishka, Ray Debashree, Mishra Swapnil, Bhattacharyya Rupam, Zimmermann Lauren, Mukherjee Bhramar

机构信息

Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America.

Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America.

出版信息

PLOS Glob Public Health. 2023 Dec 27;3(12):e0002063. doi: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002063. eCollection 2023.


DOI:10.1371/journal.pgph.0002063
PMID:38150465
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10752546/
Abstract

There has been raging discussion and debate around the quality of COVID death data in South Asia. According to WHO, of the 5.5 million reported COVID-19 deaths from 2020-2021, 0.57 million (10%) were contributed by five low and middle income countries (LMIC) countries in the Global South: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. However, a number of excess death estimates show that the actual death toll from COVID-19 is significantly higher than the reported number of deaths. For example, the IHME and WHO both project around 14.9 million total deaths, of which 4.5-5.5 million were attributed to these five countries in 2020-2021. We focus our gaze on the COVID-19 performance of these five countries where 23.5% of the world population lives in 2020 and 2021, via a counterfactual lens and ask, to what extent the mortality of one LMIC would have been affected if it adopted the pandemic policies of another, similar country? We use a Bayesian semi-mechanistic model developed by Mishra et al. (2021) to compare both the reported and estimated total death tolls by permuting the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) across these countries over a similar time period. Our analysis shows that, in the first half of 2021, mortality in India in terms of reported deaths could have been reduced to 96 and 102 deaths per million compared to actual 170 reported deaths per million had it adopted the policies of Nepal and Pakistan respectively. In terms of total deaths, India could have averted 481 and 466 deaths per million had it adopted the policies of Bangladesh and Pakistan. On the other hand, India had a lower number of reported COVID-19 deaths per million (48 deaths per million) and a lower estimated total deaths per million (80 deaths per million) in the second half of 2021, and LMICs other than Pakistan would have lower reported mortality had they followed India's strategy. The gap between the reported and estimated total deaths highlights the varying level and extent of under-reporting of deaths across the subcontinent, and that model estimates are contingent on accuracy of the death data. Our analysis shows the importance of timely public health intervention and vaccines for lowering mortality and the need for better coverage infrastructure for the death registration system in LMICs.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/102f9cb657af/pgph.0002063.g010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/0f0cad72f770/pgph.0002063.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/b37f354be7ad/pgph.0002063.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/d451630b6e46/pgph.0002063.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/3cdc9c0f886f/pgph.0002063.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/0fbaa154b5b9/pgph.0002063.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/47ab25dbda58/pgph.0002063.g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/6c7ab0a8d40b/pgph.0002063.g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/61a5c78ebe3d/pgph.0002063.g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/85a1417a0b85/pgph.0002063.g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/102f9cb657af/pgph.0002063.g010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/0f0cad72f770/pgph.0002063.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/b37f354be7ad/pgph.0002063.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/d451630b6e46/pgph.0002063.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/3cdc9c0f886f/pgph.0002063.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/0fbaa154b5b9/pgph.0002063.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/47ab25dbda58/pgph.0002063.g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/6c7ab0a8d40b/pgph.0002063.g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/61a5c78ebe3d/pgph.0002063.g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/85a1417a0b85/pgph.0002063.g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d6d/10752546/102f9cb657af/pgph.0002063.g010.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Comparative impact assessment of COVID-19 policy interventions in five South Asian countries using reported and estimated unreported death counts during 2020-2021.

PLOS Glob Public Health. 2023-12-27

[2]
Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020-21.

Lancet. 2022-4-16

[3]
Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Lancet. 2024-5-18

[4]
Fertility levels and trends in South Asia: an assessment and prospects.

Genus. 1992

[5]
Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset.

Elife. 2021-6-30

[6]
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Lancet. 2024-5-18

[7]
Folic acid supplementation and malaria susceptibility and severity among people taking antifolate antimalarial drugs in endemic areas.

Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2022-2-1

[8]
Mortality impact of achieving WHO cervical cancer elimination targets: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

Lancet. 2020-1-30

[9]
Coronavirus pandemic in the South Asia region: Health policy and economy trade-off.

J Glob Health. 2023-5-5

[10]
Excess Mortality from Mental, Neurological, and Substance Use Disorders in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

2016-3-14

引用本文的文献

[1]
The role of financial stress, food insecurity, and COVID-19-related illness concerns shaping mental health in five South Asian countries during the pandemic (2020-2022): A secondary analysis of the online COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey (CTIS) data.

PLOS Glob Public Health. 2025-8-8

[2]
Mpox awareness and vaccination willingness among a household cohort in Matlab, Bangladesh.

Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2025-7-1

本文引用的文献

[1]
Charting the challenges behind the testing of COVID-19 in developing countries: Nepal as a case study.

Biosaf Health. 2020-6

[2]
Assessing changes in incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BMC Med. 2023-9-29

[3]
Regression Models for Understanding COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics With Incomplete Data.

J Am Stat Assoc. 2021

[4]
Serial Intervals and Incubation Periods of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta Variants, Singapore.

Emerg Infect Dis. 2023-4

[5]
Conflicting COVID-19 excess mortality estimates - Authors' reply.

Lancet. 2023-2-11

[6]
Conflicting COVID-19 excess mortality estimates.

Lancet. 2023-2-11

[7]
Conflicting COVID-19 excess mortality estimates.

Lancet. 2023-2-11

[8]
Conflicting COVID-19 excess mortality estimates.

Lancet. 2023-2-11

[9]
Conflicting COVID-19 excess mortality estimates.

Lancet. 2023-2-11

[10]
Conflicting COVID-19 excess mortality estimates.

Lancet. 2023-2-11

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

推荐工具

医学文档翻译智能文献检索