Kopf A W, Gross D F, Rogers G S, Rigel D S, Hellman L J, Levenstein M, Welkovich B, Friedman R J, Roses D F, Bart R S
Cancer. 1987 Mar 15;59(6):1236-41. doi: 10.1002/1097-0142(19870315)59:6<1236::aid-cncr2820590634>3.0.co;2-i.
This report verifies the ability of a Prognostic Index (PI) to accurately predict 5-year survival rates for 879 Stage I cutaneous malignant melanoma (MM) patients seen at New York University Medical Center. The PI used in this study was first reported from Munich, West Germany, and is calculated from standard histologic sections by multiplying the MM thickness in millimeters (Breslow method) by the number of MM mitoses per square millimeter. A PI value of less than 19 versus greater than or equal to 19 was found to be a significant and independent prognostic variable for Stage I MM when compared with seven other predictive variables (including Breslow thickness). These PI intervals identified a subgroup of patients with MM of intermediate thicknesses (1.50-3.49 mm) whose significantly worse survival would not have been anticipated if prognosis were determined by Breslow thickness alone. For example, patients with MM 1.50 to 2.49 mm thick have a 5-year survival rate of 84.1% determined by Breslow thickness alone; however, among these patients exists a subgroup with PI greater than or equal to 19 whose survival rate is only 57.6%. This study verifies the additive usefulness of the PI in predicting survival rates of patients with Stage I cutaneous MM.
本报告验证了一种预后指数（PI）准确预测纽约大学医学中心879例I期皮肤恶性黑色素瘤（MM）患者5年生存率的能力。本研究中使用的PI最初由西德慕尼黑报道，通过将以毫米为单位的MM厚度（ Breslow法）乘以每平方毫米MM有丝分裂数，根据标准组织学切片计算得出。与其他七个预测变量（包括Breslow厚度）相比，发现PI值小于19与大于或等于19是I期MM的一个显著且独立的预后变量。这些PI区间确定了一组中等厚度（1.50 - 3.49毫米）MM患者亚组，如果仅根据Breslow厚度确定预后，其显著较差的生存率是无法预期的。例如，仅根据Breslow厚度，厚度为1.50至2.49毫米的MM患者5年生存率为84.1%；然而，在这些患者中存在一个PI大于或等于19的亚组，其生存率仅为57.6%。本研究验证了PI在预测I期皮肤MM患者生存率方面的附加有用性。
