Hu Yang, Weng Lingfei
School of Public Policy and Administration, Chongqing University, 174 Shazheng Rd., Chongqing, 400044, China.
School of Public Policy and Administration, Chongqing University, 174 Shazheng Rd., Chongqing, 400044, China.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Feb;351:119999. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119999. Epub 2024 Jan 3.
In an era marked by escalating climate change, the fragile ecological balance faces increasing strain. Whilst significant knowledge exists regarding the accumulation of carbon emission within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, little is known about when and how countries could reach net-zero emission goal as agreed in Paris Agreement. For this purpose, our study examines the primary driving factors of carbon emission from 1990 to 2020 across the ten countries using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model. We leverage the random forest model to explore the net-zero scenarios and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average approach to identify the evolutionary trajectories of carbon emission trends. Our findings underscore the imperative need for expediting decarbonization efforts, emphasizing the urgency for widespread adoption of clean technologies and substantial investment in green initiatives. Countries at similar stages of progress might establish a cooperation mechanism of clean energy base construction, energy storage allocation and policy formulation. These insights can help us better estimate future demand of clean energy, explore strategies for decarbonization, and inform historical commonalities of carbon emission growth.
在一个气候变化不断升级的时代，脆弱的生态平衡面临着越来越大的压力。虽然在东南亚国家联盟内部碳排放积累方面已有大量知识，但对于各国何时以及如何能够实现《巴黎协定》中商定的净零排放目标却知之甚少。为此，我们的研究使用对数平均迪氏指数模型，考察了1990年至2020年期间十个国家碳排放的主要驱动因素。我们利用随机森林模型探索净零情景，并采用自回归积分移动平均方法来识别碳排放趋势的演变轨迹。我们的研究结果强调了加快脱碳努力的迫切需要，强调了广泛采用清洁技术和对绿色倡议进行大量投资的紧迫性。处于相似发展阶段的国家可以建立清洁能源基地建设、储能配置和政策制定的合作机制。这些见解有助于我们更好地估计未来清洁能源需求，探索脱碳战略，并了解碳排放增长的历史共性。
