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基于 SEER 研究的手术和放疗对局限性前列腺癌老年患者预后意义:建立和基于时间的外部验证nomogram。

Prognostic significance of surgery and radiotherapy in elderly patients with localized prostate cancer: establishing and time-based external validation a nomogram from SEER-based study.

机构信息

Department of Urology, Kunming Children's Hospital (Children's Hospital affiliated to Kunming Medical University), Kunming, People's Republic of China.

Department of Oncology; Yunnan Children solid Tumor Treatment Center, Kunming Children's Hospital (Children's Hospital affiliated to Kunming Medical University), Kunming Children's Solid Tumor Diagnosis and Treatment Center, Kunming, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

BMC Urol. 2024 Jan 6;24(1):12. doi: 10.1186/s12894-023-01384-6.


DOI:10.1186/s12894-023-01384-6
PMID:38184526
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10771675/
Abstract

OBJECTIVE: Prostate cancer (PC) is a significant disease affecting men's health worldwide. More than 60% of patients over 65 years old and more than 80% are diagnosed with localized PC. The current choice of treatment modalities for localized PC and whether overtreatment is controversial. Therefore, we wanted to construct a nomogram to predict the risk factors associated with cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) in elderly patients with localized PC while assessing the survival differences in surgery and radiotherapy for elderly patients with localized PC. METHODS: Data of patients with localized PC over 65 years were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to determine independent risk factors for CSS and OS. Nomograms predicting CSS and OS were built using multivariate Cox regression models. The consistency index (C-index), the area under the subject operating characteristic curve (AUC), and the calibration curve were used to test the accuracy and discrimination of the prediction model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to test the potential clinical value of this model. RESULTS: A total of 90,434 patients over 65 years and diagnosed with localized PC from 2010 to 2018 were included in the study. All patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 63,328) and the validation set (n = 27,106). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression model analysis showed that age, race, marriage, T stage, surgical, radiotherapy, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), and Gleason score (GS) were independent risk factors for predicting CSS in elderly patients with localized PC. Age, race, marriage, surgery, radiotherapy, PSA, and GS were independent risk factors for predicting OS in elderly patients with localized PC. The c-index of the training and validation sets for the predicted CSS is 0.802(95%CI:0.788-0.816) and 0.798(95%CI:0.776-0.820, respectively). The c-index of the training and validation sets for predicting OS is 0.712(95%:0.704-0.720) and 0.724(95%:0.714-0.734). It shows that the nomograms have excellent discriminatory ability. The AUC and the calibration curves also show good accuracy and discriminability. CONCLUSION: We have developed new nomograms to predict CSS and OS in elderly patients with localized PC. After internal validation and external temporal validation with reasonable accuracy, reliability and potential clinical value, the model can be used for clinically assisted decision-making.

摘要

目的:前列腺癌(PC)是一种严重影响全球男性健康的疾病。超过 65 岁的患者中超过 60%,80%以上被诊断为局限性 PC。目前局限性 PC 的治疗方法选择以及是否过度治疗存在争议。因此,我们希望构建一个列线图来预测与局限性 PC 老年患者癌症特异性生存(CSS)和总生存(OS)相关的风险因素,同时评估局限性 PC 老年患者手术和放疗的生存差异。

方法:从监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中获取 65 岁以上局限性 PC 患者的数据。使用单变量和多变量 Cox 回归模型确定 CSS 和 OS 的独立危险因素。使用多变量 Cox 回归模型构建预测 CSS 和 OS 的列线图。一致性指数(C 指数)、受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)和校准曲线用于测试预测模型的准确性和区分度。决策曲线分析(DCA)用于测试该模型的潜在临床价值。

结果:共纳入 2010 年至 2018 年间 90434 名 65 岁以上诊断为局限性 PC 的患者。所有患者均被随机分配到训练集(n=63328)和验证集(n=27106)。单变量和多变量 Cox 回归模型分析显示,年龄、种族、婚姻、T 分期、手术、放疗、前列腺特异性抗原(PSA)和 Gleason 评分(GS)是预测局限性 PC 老年患者 CSS 的独立危险因素。年龄、种族、婚姻、手术、放疗、PSA 和 GS 是预测局限性 PC 老年患者 OS 的独立危险因素。训练集和验证集预测 CSS 的 C 指数分别为 0.802(95%CI:0.788-0.816)和 0.798(95%CI:0.776-0.820)。训练集和验证集预测 OS 的 C 指数分别为 0.712(95%:0.704-0.720)和 0.724(95%:0.714-0.734)。这表明列线图具有良好的判别能力。AUC 和校准曲线也显示出良好的准确性和判别能力。

结论:我们已经开发了新的列线图来预测局限性 PC 老年患者的 CSS 和 OS。经过内部验证和外部时间验证,具有合理的准确性、可靠性和潜在的临床价值,该模型可用于临床辅助决策。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/4fd91088aeab/12894_2023_1384_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/59b6b85928ee/12894_2023_1384_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/886d13cfe9f0/12894_2023_1384_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/f4ef0a425151/12894_2023_1384_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/47a10e3a6bb9/12894_2023_1384_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/23540d658182/12894_2023_1384_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/26a2993290af/12894_2023_1384_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/4637611915be/12894_2023_1384_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/4fd91088aeab/12894_2023_1384_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/59b6b85928ee/12894_2023_1384_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/886d13cfe9f0/12894_2023_1384_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/f4ef0a425151/12894_2023_1384_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/47a10e3a6bb9/12894_2023_1384_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/23540d658182/12894_2023_1384_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/26a2993290af/12894_2023_1384_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/4637611915be/12894_2023_1384_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b4c/10771675/4fd91088aeab/12894_2023_1384_Fig8_HTML.jpg

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Prognostic significance of surgery and radiotherapy in elderly patients with localized prostate cancer: establishing and time-based external validation a nomogram from SEER-based study.

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引用本文的文献

[1]
A novel MRI-based habitat analysis and deep learning for predicting perineural invasion in prostate cancer: a two-center study.

BMC Cancer. 2025-8-23

[2]
Nomogram for predicting early death in elderly patients with laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma: A population-based SEER study.

PLoS One. 2024-12-19

本文引用的文献

[1]
Complications of extraperitoneal robot-assisted radical prostatectomy in high-risk prostate cancer: A single high-volume center experience.

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PLoS One. 2020-1-29

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How to Pick Out the "Unreal" Gleason 3 + 3 Patients: A Nomogram for More Precise Active Surveillance Protocol in Low-Risk Prostate Cancer in a Chinese Population.

J Invest Surg. 2021-6

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