Thornberry Terence P
Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland, LeFrak Hall, College Park MD 20742, USA.
J Dev Life Course Criminol. 2020 Dec;6(4):381-397. doi: 10.1007/s40865-020-00150-8. Epub 2020 Sep 2.
In recent years, criminology has seen an increase in the number of 3-generation, prospective studies of offending. The most fundamental question posed by these studies is whether, and to what extent, parental involvement in adolescent delinquency increases the risk of offending by their offspring. There are several important substantive and methodological challenges that need to be confronted in assessing the intergenerational effect including the examination of moderating influences that can change the level of intergenerational continuity and methodological issues as definitional elasticity-the impact on the level of intergenerational continuity that is likely to be observed based on a) how offending is defined and b) how the inherent heterogeneity in offending is taken into accounted.
To examine these issues I use data from the Rochester Intergenerational Study (RIGS), an extension of the original Rochester Youth Development Study (RYDS). RYDS began data collection in 1988 with a sample of 1000 adolescents and one of their parents. The intergenerational study began in 1999 by adding a third generation member - the oldest biological child of the initial adolescent participants - and following them over time with 19 annual assessments.
Overall, there is a significant positive association between a parent's involvement in adolescent delinquency and the likelihood that their offspring will also be involved in delinquency. That overall relationship, however, masks substantial internal variability. The significance and size of the intergenerational effect varies by such factors as the level of ongoing contact between fathers and their children and the child's gender. It is also influenced by methodological considerations such as definitional elasticity. Under some definitions of delinquent behavior, a robust relationship between the parent's delinquency and the child's is observed while under other definitions there is no significant relationship.
There is, as of now, no clear and consistent answer to the question of whether or not children follow in the footsteps of their parents with respect to delinquency. The field of intergenerational study, which is still relatively new, needs to confront more directly and systematically how both substantive and methodological issues that can influence estimates of the intergenerational effect.
近年来,犯罪学领域中对犯罪行为进行的三代前瞻性研究数量有所增加。这些研究提出的最基本问题是,父母参与青少年犯罪是否以及在多大程度上会增加其子女犯罪的风险。在评估代际效应时,需要面对几个重要的实质性和方法学挑战,包括对调节影响的考察,这些影响会改变代际连续性的水平,以及方法学问题,如定义弹性——即基于以下两点对可能观察到的代际连续性水平的影响:a)如何定义犯罪行为;b)如何考虑犯罪行为中固有的异质性。
为了研究这些问题,我使用了罗切斯特代际研究(RIGS)的数据,该研究是原始罗切斯特青年发展研究(RYDS)的扩展。RYDS于1988年开始数据收集,样本包括1000名青少年及其父母之一。代际研究始于1999年,增加了第三代成员——最初青少年参与者中年龄最大的亲生孩子——并对他们进行了19次年度评估,跟踪他们随时间的变化。
总体而言,父母参与青少年犯罪与子女也参与犯罪的可能性之间存在显著的正相关。然而,这种总体关系掩盖了很大的内部变异性。代际效应的显著性和大小因多种因素而异,如父亲与子女之间持续接触的程度以及孩子的性别。它还受到方法学因素的影响,如定义弹性。在某些犯罪行为的定义下,观察到父母犯罪与孩子犯罪之间存在稳健的关系,而在其他定义下则没有显著关系。
到目前为止,关于孩子在犯罪方面是否会效仿父母这个问题,还没有明确一致的答案。代际研究领域仍然相对较新,需要更直接、系统地面对那些可能影响代际效应估计的实质性和方法学问题。