Grossmann-Matheson Guisela, Young Ian R, Meucci Alberto, Alves Jose-Henrique
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
Weather Program Office, Ocean and Atmospheric Research, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD, USA.
Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 30;14(1):31797. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-82892-9.
Tropical cyclone risks are expected to increase with climate change. One such risk is extreme ocean waves generated by surface winds from these systems. We use synthetic databases of both historical (1980-2017) and future (2015-2050) tropical cyclone tracks to generate wind fields and force a computationally efficient wave model to estimate significant wave heights across all global tropical cyclone basins. These data are then used to estimate 1 in 100-year return period significant wave height for both the historical period and the future under an SSP585 high emissions scenario. The results show that by 2050, there are projected increases in 100-year significant wave height of up to 1.5 m (10%) in the Eastern and Western Pacific, South Indian and South Pacific Ocean basins. The North Atlantic basin shows no consistent trend, whilst the North Indian basin (particularly the Bay of Bengal) shows a statistically significant decrease in extreme significant wave height. The results represent the first attempt to quantify the magnitude of expected changes in extreme wave height conditions generated by extreme tropical cyclones across all tropical cyclone basins.
预计热带气旋风险会随着气候变化而增加。其中一个风险是这些系统的表面风产生的极端海浪。我们使用历史（1980 - 2017年）和未来（2015 - 2050年）热带气旋路径的合成数据库来生成风场，并驱动一个计算效率高的海浪模型，以估算全球所有热带气旋盆地的有效波高。然后，这些数据被用于估算在SSP585高排放情景下历史时期和未来的百年一遇有效波高。结果表明，到2050年，预计东太平洋和西太平洋、南印度洋和南太平洋盆地的百年有效波高将增加高达1.5米（10%）。北大西洋盆地没有一致的趋势，而北印度洋盆地（特别是孟加拉湾）的极端有效波高在统计上有显著下降。这些结果首次尝试量化所有热带气旋盆地极端热带气旋产生的极端波高条件预期变化的幅度。
