Teng Andrea, Stanley James, Jackson Christopher, Koea Jonathan, Lao Chunhuan, Lawrenson Ross, Meredith Ineke, Sika-Paotonu Dianne, Gurney Jason
Department of Public Health, University of Otago, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New Zealand.
Department of Public Health, University of Otago, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New Zealand.
Cancer Epidemiol. 2024 Apr;89:102535. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2024.102535. Epub 2024 Jan 26.
Cancer is a major cause of premature death and inequity, and global case numbers are rapidly expanding. This study projects future cancer numbers and incidence rates in Aotearoa New Zealand.
Age-period-cohort modelling was applied to 25-years of national data to project cancer cases and incidence trends from 2020 to 2044. Nationally mandated cancer registry data and official historical and projected population estimates were used, with sub-groups by age, sex, and ethnicity.
Cancer diagnoses were projected to increase from 25,700 per year in 2015-2019 to 45,100 a year by 2040-44, a 76% increase (2.3% per annum). Across the same period, age-standardised cancer incidence increased by 9% (0.3% per annum) from 348 to 378 cancers per 100,000 person years, with greater increases for males (11%) than females (6%). Projected incidence trends varied substantially by cancer type, with several projected to change faster or in the opposite direction compared to projections from other countries.
Increasing cancer numbers reinforces the critical need for both cancer prevention and treatment service planning activities. Investment in developing new ways of working and increasing the workforce are required for the health system to be able to afford and manage the future burden of cancer.
癌症是过早死亡和不平等的主要原因，全球病例数正在迅速增加。本研究预测了新西兰未来的癌症病例数和发病率。
采用年龄-时期-队列模型对25年的国家数据进行分析，以预测2020年至2044年的癌症病例和发病趋势。使用了国家规定的癌症登记数据以及官方的历史和预测人口估计数，并按年龄、性别和种族进行了亚组分析。
预计癌症诊断数将从2015 - 2019年的每年25,700例增加到2040 - 2044年的每年45,100例，增长76%（每年2.3%）。在同一时期，年龄标准化癌症发病率从每10万人年348例增加到378例，增长了9%（每年0.3%），男性增长幅度（11%）大于女性（6%）。不同癌症类型的预计发病趋势差异很大，与其他国家的预测相比，有几种癌症的预计变化更快或方向相反。
癌症病例数的增加凸显了癌症预防和治疗服务规划活动的迫切需求。卫生系统需要投资开发新的工作方式并增加劳动力，以便能够承担和管理未来的癌症负担。
