Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DA, UK.
J Public Health (Oxf). 2024 May 29;46(2):286-293. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdae010.
Alcohol consumption changed substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic for many people. This study quantified how these changes in drinking varied across the population and their potential longer-term impact on health and health inequalities.
We analyzed data from the Alcohol Toolkit Study to estimate how alcohol consumption changed during the pandemic (April 2020-November 2021) and how these changes varied with age, sex, drinking level and socioeconomic position. We combined these estimates with a range of alternative scenarios of future alcohol consumption and used the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model to assess the long-term health and health inequality impacts of these changes.
Alcohol consumption in 2020-21 increased in heavier drinkers but fell in moderate drinkers. If alcohol consumption returns to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, we estimate a total of 42 677 additional hospital admissions and 1830 deaths over 20 years because of these changes. If consumption remains at 2021 levels in the long-term these figures rise to 355 832 and 12 849, respectively. In all scenarios, the biggest increase in harm occurs in the most deprived 20% of the population.
Pandemic-era changes in alcohol consumption are likely to have a significant negative impact on public health and health inequalities, even under optimistic assumptions about future drinking.
在新冠疫情期间，许多人的饮酒习惯发生了重大变化。本研究定量分析了人群中饮酒习惯的变化情况，以及这些变化对健康和健康不平等的潜在长期影响。
我们分析了酒精工具包研究的数据，以估计在疫情期间（2020 年 4 月至 2021 年 11 月）饮酒习惯的变化情况，以及这些变化如何因年龄、性别、饮酒水平和社会经济地位而有所不同。我们将这些估计与一系列未来饮酒情况的替代方案相结合，并使用谢菲尔德酒精政策模型评估这些变化对长期健康和健康不平等的影响。
2020-21 年，重度饮酒者的饮酒量增加，而中度饮酒者的饮酒量下降。如果 2022 年的酒精消费量恢复到疫情前的水平，我们估计仅因这些变化，未来 20 年内将增加 42677 例住院和 1830 例死亡。如果长期保持 2021 年的消费水平，这些数字将分别上升至 355832 例和 12849 例。在所有情景下，最贫困的 20%人群的伤害增加幅度最大。
即使对未来饮酒情况做出乐观假设，疫情期间饮酒习惯的变化也可能对公共健康和健康不平等产生重大负面影响。
