Card-Gowers Joshua, Boniface Sadie, Brown Jamie, Kock Loren, Martin Alexander, Retat Lise, Webber Laura
HealthLumen Ltd, London, United Kingdom.
Centre for Behaviour Change, Research Department of Clinical, Educational and Health Psychology, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
PLoS One. 2025 Jan 16;20(1):e0314870. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0314870. eCollection 2025.
The COVID-19 pandemic led to changes in alcohol consumption in England. Evidence suggests that one-fifth to one-third of adults increased their alcohol consumption, while a similar proportion reported consuming less. Heavier drinkers increased their consumption the most and there was a 20% increase in alcohol-specific deaths in England in 2020 compared with 2019, a trend continuing through 2021 and 2022. This study aimed to quantify future health, healthcare, and economic impacts of changes in alcohol consumption observed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
This study used a validated microsimulation model of alcohol consumption and health outcomes. Inputted data were obtained from the Alcohol Toolkit Study, and demographic, health and cost data from published literature and publicly available datasets. Three scenarios were modelled: short, medium, and long-term, where 2020 drinking patterns continue until the end of 2022, 2024, and 2035, respectively. Disease incidence, mortality, and healthcare costs were modelled for nine alcohol-related health conditions. The model was run from 2020 to 2035 for the population of England and different occupational social grade groups.
In all scenarios, the microsimulation projected significant increases in incident cases of disease, premature mortality, and healthcare costs, compared with the continuation of pre-COVID-19 trends. If COVID-19 drinking patterns continue to 2035, we projected 147,892 excess cases of diseases, 9,914 additional premature deaths, and £1.2 billion in excess healthcare costs in England. The projections show that the more disadvantaged (C2DE) occupational social grade groups will experience 36% more excess premature mortality than the least disadvantaged social group (ABC1) under the long-term scenario.
Alcohol harm is projected to worsen as an indirect result of the COVID-19 pandemic and inequalities are projected to widen. Early real-world data corroborate the findings of the modelling study. Increased rates of alcohol harm and healthcare costs are not inevitable but evidence-based policies and interventions are required to reverse the impacts of the pandemic on alcohol consumption in England.
新冠疫情导致英国的酒精消费发生了变化。有证据表明，五分之一到三分之一的成年人增加了酒精消费量，而报告饮酒量减少的比例也相近。饮酒量较大者的消费量增加最多，与2019年相比，2020年英国因酒精导致的死亡人数增加了20%，这一趋势持续到2021年和2022年。本研究旨在量化新冠疫情期间观察到的酒精消费变化对未来健康、医疗保健和经济的影响。
本研究使用了一个经过验证的酒精消费与健康结果微观模拟模型。输入的数据来自酒精工具包研究，以及已发表文献和公开可用数据集的人口统计学、健康和成本数据。模拟了三种情景：短期、中期和长期，即2020年的饮酒模式分别持续到2022年底、2024年和2035年。对九种与酒精相关的健康状况的疾病发病率、死亡率和医疗保健成本进行了模拟。该模型针对英国人口和不同职业社会等级群体从2020年运行到2035年。
在所有情景中，与新冠疫情前的趋势持续情况相比，微观模拟预测疾病的发病病例、过早死亡率和医疗保健成本将显著增加。如果新冠疫情期间的饮酒模式持续到2035年，我们预计英国将出现147,892例额外的疾病病例、9,914例额外的过早死亡以及12亿英镑的额外医疗保健成本。预测表明，在长期情景下，处境最不利（C组和D组及E组）的职业社会等级群体的额外过早死亡率将比处境最有利的社会群体（A组、B组和C组）高36%。
预计新冠疫情的间接结果将是酒精危害加剧，不平等现象也将加剧。早期的实际数据证实了建模研究的结果。酒精危害率和医疗保健成本的增加并非不可避免，但需要基于证据的政策和干预措施来扭转疫情对英国酒精消费的影响。
