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墨西哥新冠肺炎的空间生存模型

Spatial Survival Model for COVID-19 in México.

作者信息

Pérez-Castro Eduardo, Guzmán-Martínez María, Godínez-Jaimes Flaviano, Reyes-Carreto Ramón, Vargas-de-León Cruz, Aguirre-Salado Alejandro Iván

机构信息

Unidad de Investigación de Salud en el Trabajo, Centro Médico Nacional Siglo XXI, Ciudad de México 06720, Mexico.

Facultad de Matemáticas, Universidad Autónoma de Guerrero, Chilpancingo 39087, Mexico.

出版信息

Healthcare (Basel). 2024 Jan 24;12(3):306. doi: 10.3390/healthcare12030306.

DOI:10.3390/healthcare12030306
PMID:38338191
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10855302/
Abstract

A spatial survival analysis was performed to identify some of the factors that influence the survival of patients with COVID-19 in the states of Guerrero, México, and Chihuahua. The data that we analyzed correspond to the period from 28 February 2020 to 24 November 2021. A Cox proportional hazards frailty model and a Cox proportional hazards model were fitted. For both models, the estimation of the parameters was carried out using the Bayesian approach. According to the DIC, WAIC, and LPML criteria, the spatial model was better. The analysis showed that the spatial effect influences the survival times of patients with COVID-19. The spatial survival analysis also revealed that age, gender, and the presence of comorbidities, which vary between states, and the development of pneumonia increase the risk of death from COVID-19.

摘要

进行了空间生存分析，以确定影响墨西哥格雷罗州和奇瓦瓦州新冠肺炎患者生存的一些因素。我们分析的数据对应于2020年2月28日至2021年11月24日期间。拟合了Cox比例风险脆弱模型和Cox比例风险模型。对于这两个模型，参数估计均采用贝叶斯方法。根据DIC、WAIC和LPML标准，空间模型表现更佳。分析表明，空间效应影响新冠肺炎患者的生存时间。空间生存分析还显示，各州之间存在差异的年龄、性别、合并症的存在以及肺炎的发展会增加新冠肺炎死亡风险。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ca89/10855302/e35a1f6a14fc/healthcare-12-00306-g008.jpg
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