印度尼西亚望加锡的登革热贝叶斯空间生存建模。
Bayesian spatial survival modelling for dengue fever in Makassar, Indonesia.
机构信息
Department of Statistics, Hasanuddin University, Makassar 90245, Indonesia.
Statistics Study Program, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar 90224, Indonesia.
出版信息
Gac Sanit. 2021;35 Suppl 1:S59-S63. doi: 10.1016/j.gaceta.2020.12.017.
OBJECTIVE
To understand the spatial pattern of dengue fever (DF) patients' survival and investigated factors influencing DF patients' survival.
METHOD
A Bayesian spatial survival method via a conditional autoregressive approach was used to analyze the factors that influence DF patients' survival in 14 sub-districts from January 2015 to May 2017 in Makassar city, Indonesia. Bayesian spatial and a non-spatial model were compared by using deviance information criterion.
RESULTS
The spatial model was more suitable than a non-spatial model. Under the Bayesian spatial model, there was a substantive relationship between age, grade and DF patients' survival time.
CONCLUSIONS
The relative risk map and related factors of DF patients' survival can indicate the health policy makers to give special attention to the high risk areas in order to faster and more targeted treatment.
目的
了解登革热（DF）患者生存的空间模式，并探讨影响 DF 患者生存的因素。
方法
采用条件自回归方法的贝叶斯空间生存方法，对 2015 年 1 月至 2017 年 5 月印度尼西亚马卡萨市 14 个分区的影响 DF 患者生存的因素进行分析。通过偏差信息准则比较贝叶斯空间和非空间模型。
结果
空间模型比非空间模型更合适。在贝叶斯空间模型下，年龄、年级与 DF 患者生存时间之间存在实质性关系。
结论
DF 患者生存的相对风险图和相关因素可以指示卫生政策制定者特别关注高风险地区，以便更快、更有针对性地进行治疗。
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