一种用于预测奥密克戎患者转阴时间的共形回归器。

A conformal regressor for predicting negative conversion time of Omicron patients.

作者信息

Wang Pingping, Wu Shenjing, Tian Mei, Liu Kunmeng, Cong Jinyu, Zhang Wei, Wei Benzheng

机构信息

Qingdao Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Qingdao, 266112, China.

Center for Medical Artificial Intelligence, Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Qingdao, 266112, China.

出版信息

Med Biol Eng Comput. 2024 Feb 16. doi: 10.1007/s11517-024-03029-8.

Abstract

In light of the situation and the characteristics of Omicron, the country has continuously optimized the rules for the prevention and control of COVID-19. The global epidemic is still spreading, and new cases of infection continue to emerge in China. To facilitate the infected person to estimate the course of virus infection, a prediction model for predicting negative conversion time is proposed in this article. The clinical features of Omicron-infected patients in Shandong Province in the first half of 2022 are retrospectively studied. These features are grouped by disease diagnosis result, clinical sign, traditional Chinese medicine symptoms, and drug use. These features are input to the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model, and the output is the predicted number of negative conversion days. At the same time, XGBoost is used as the underlying algorithm of the conformal prediction (CP) framework, which can realize the probability interval estimation with a controllable error rate. The results show that the proposed model has a mean absolute error of 3.54 days and has the shortest interval prediction result. This shows that the method in this paper can carry more decision-making information and help people better understand the disease and self-estimate the course of the disease to a certain extent.

摘要

鉴于奥密克戎变异株的情况和特点,国家不断优化新冠疫情防控措施。全球疫情仍在蔓延,国内新感染病例持续出现。为便于感染者预估病毒感染病程,本文提出了一种预测转阴时间的预测模型。对2022年上半年山东省奥密克戎感染患者的临床特征进行回顾性研究。这些特征按疾病诊断结果、临床体征、中医症状和用药情况进行分组。将这些特征输入极端梯度提升(XGBoost)模型,输出为预测的转阴天数。同时,XGBoost用作共形预测(CP)框架的底层算法,可实现具有可控错误率的概率区间估计。结果表明,所提出的模型平均绝对误差为3.54天,且区间预测结果最短。这表明本文方法能够携带更多决策信息,在一定程度上有助于人们更好地了解疾病并自我预估病程。

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