Social Data Collaboratory, NORC at the University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
Department of Behavioral Science, University of Kentucky College of Medicine, Lexington, KY, USA.
Nicotine Tob Res. 2024 Feb 15;26(Supplement_1):S49-S56. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntad169.
Prior research on the effects of social media promotion of tobacco products has predominantly relied on survey-based self-report measures of marketing exposure, which potentially introduce endogeneity, recall, and selection biases. New approaches can enhance measurement and help better understand the effects of exposure to tobacco-related messages in a dynamic social media marketing environment. We used geolocation-specific tweet rate as an exogenous indicator of exposure to smokeless tobacco (ST)-related content and employed this measure to examine the influence of social media marketing on ST sales.
Autoregressive error models were used to analyze the association between the ST-relevant tweet rate (aggregated by 4-week period from February 12, 2017 to June 26, 2021 and scaled by population density) and logarithmic ST unit sales across time by product type (newer, snus, conventional) in the United States, accounting for autocorrelated errors. Interrupted time series approach was used to control for policy change effects.
ST product category-related tweet rates were associated with ST unit sales of newer and conventional products, controlling for price, relevant policy events, and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. On average, 100-unit increase in the number of newer ST-related tweets was associated with 14% increase in unit sales (RR = 1.14; p = .01); 100-unit increase in conventional ST tweets was associated with ~1% increase in unit sales (p = .04). Average price was negatively associated with the unit sales.
Study findings reveal that ST social media tweet rate was related to increased ST consumption and illustrate the utility of exogenous measures in conceptualizing and assessing effects in the complex media environment.
Tobacco control initiatives should include efforts to monitor the role of social media in promoting tobacco use. Surveillance of social media platforms is critical to monitor emerging tobacco product-related marketing strategies and promotional content reach. Exogenous measures of potential exposure to social media messages can supplement survey data to study media effects on tobacco consumption.
先前关于社交媒体推广烟草制品影响的研究主要依赖于营销暴露的基于调查的自我报告措施，这可能会引入内生性、回忆和选择偏差。新方法可以提高测量水平，并有助于更好地理解在动态社交媒体营销环境中接触与烟草相关信息的影响。我们使用特定地理位置的推文率作为暴露于无烟烟草 (ST) 相关内容的外生指标，并利用这一指标来研究社交媒体营销对 ST 销售的影响。
我们使用自回归误差模型来分析 2017 年 2 月 12 日至 2021 年 6 月 26 日期间按 4 周为周期聚合的 ST 相关推文率（按人口密度进行缩放）与美国按产品类型（新型、鼻烟、传统）划分的 ST 单位销售之间的关联，同时考虑到自相关误差。中断时间序列方法用于控制政策变化的影响。
在控制价格、相关政策事件和 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 大流行后，新型和传统 ST 产品相关的推文率与 ST 单位销售有关。新型 ST 相关推文数量每增加 100 个，单位销售量增加 14%（RR=1.14；p=0.01）；传统 ST 推文增加 100 个，单位销售量增加约 1%（p=0.04）。平均价格与单位销售呈负相关。
研究结果表明，ST 社交媒体推文率与 ST 消费增加有关，并说明了在复杂的媒体环境中用外生措施来构思和评估影响的效用。
烟草控制倡议应包括监测社交媒体在促进烟草使用方面的作用。对社交媒体平台的监测对于监测新兴的与烟草产品相关的营销策略和促销内容的覆盖面至关重要。潜在接触社交媒体信息的外生措施可以补充调查数据，以研究媒体对烟草消费的影响。
