Yang Xuziqi, Hua Zekai, Li Liang, Huo Xingheng, Zhao Ziqiang
College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China.
Laboratory of Walnut Research Center, College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Feb 19;14(1):4052. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-54354-9.
The objective of this study is to promptly and accurately allocate resources, scientifically guide grain distribution, and enhance the precision of crop yield prediction (CYP), particularly for corn, along with ensuring application stability. The digital camera is selected to capture the digital image of a 60 m × 10 m experimental cornfield. Subsequently, the obtained data on corn yield and statistical growth serve as inputs for the multi-source information fusion (MSIF). The study proposes an MSIF-based CYP Random Forest model by amalgamating the fluctuating corn yield dataset. In relation to the spatial variability of the experimental cornfield, the fitting degree and prediction ability of the proposed MSIF-based CYP Random Forest are analyzed, with statistics collected from 1-hectare, 10-hectare, 20-hectare, 30-hectare, and 50-hectare experimental cornfields. Results indicate that the proposed MSIF-based CYP Random Forest model outperforms control models such as support vector machine (SVM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), achieving the highest prediction accuracy of 89.30%, surpassing SVM and LSTM by approximately 13.44%. Meanwhile, as the experimental field size increases, the proposed model demonstrates higher prediction accuracy, reaching a maximum of 98.71%. This study is anticipated to offer early warnings of potential factors affecting crop yields and to further advocate for the adoption of MSIF-based CYP. These findings hold significant research implications for personnel involved in Agricultural and Forestry Economic Management within the context of developing agricultural economy.
本研究的目的是迅速、准确地分配资源,科学指导粮食分配,提高作物产量预测(CYP)的精度,特别是玉米产量预测的精度,并确保应用的稳定性。选择数码相机拍摄一块60米×10米的实验玉米田的数字图像。随后,将获得的玉米产量数据和统计生长数据作为多源信息融合(MSIF)的输入。该研究通过合并波动的玉米产量数据集,提出了一种基于MSIF的CYP随机森林模型。针对实验玉米田的空间变异性,分析了所提出的基于MSIF的CYP随机森林的拟合度和预测能力,并收集了来自1公顷、10公顷、20公顷、30公顷和50公顷实验玉米田的统计数据。结果表明,所提出的基于MSIF的CYP随机森林模型优于支持向量机(SVM)和长短期记忆(LSTM)等对照模型,实现了89.30%的最高预测准确率,比SVM和LSTM高出约13.44%。同时,随着实验田面积的增加,所提出的模型显示出更高的预测准确率,最高达到98.71%。预计本研究将对影响作物产量的潜在因素提供早期预警,并进一步倡导采用基于MSIF的CYP。这些发现对农业经济发展背景下从事农林经济管理的人员具有重要的研究意义。