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一种模拟出行限制和疫苗接种在控制城市网络中疫情传播方面作用的新方法。

A novel approach to model the role of mobility suppression and vaccinations in containing epidemics in a network of cities.

作者信息

Alrawas Leen, Tridane Abdessamad, Benrhmach Ghassane

机构信息

Department of Physics, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Department of Mathematical Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

出版信息

Infect Dis Model. 2024 Feb 7;9(2):397-410. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.01.005. eCollection 2024 Jun.

DOI:10.1016/j.idm.2024.01.005
PMID:38385016
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10879667/
Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive agent-based model for the spread of an infection in a network of cities. Directional mobility is defined between each two cities and can take different values. The work examines the role that such mobility levels play in containing the infection with various vaccination coverage and age distributions. The results indicate that mobility reduction is sufficient to control the disease under all circumstances and full lockdowns are not a necessity. It has to be reduced to different ratios depending on the vaccination level and age distribution. A key finding is that increasing vaccination coverage above a certain level does not affect the mobility suppression level required to control the infection anymore for the cases of young population and heterogeneous age distributions. By investigating several migration and commuting patterns, it is found that shutting mobility in a few local places is favored against reducing mobility over the entire country network. In addition, commuting -and not migration-influences the spread level of the infection. The work offers an exclusive combined network-based and agent-based model that makes use of randomly generated mobility matrices.

摘要

本文提出了一个全面的基于主体的模型，用于研究感染在城市网络中的传播。定义了每两个城市之间的定向流动性，其取值可以不同。该研究考察了在不同疫苗接种覆盖率和年龄分布情况下，这种流动性水平在控制感染方面所起的作用。结果表明，在所有情况下，降低流动性足以控制疾病，并非必须实施全面封锁。根据疫苗接种水平和年龄分布，流动性必须降低到不同比例。一个关键发现是，对于年轻人群体和异质年龄分布的情况，当疫苗接种覆盖率提高到一定水平以上时，控制感染所需的流动性抑制水平不再受到影响。通过研究几种迁移和通勤模式发现，与在整个国家网络中降低流动性相比，在一些局部地区限制流动性更为有利。此外，影响感染传播水平的是通勤而非迁移。这项工作提供了一个独特的基于网络和主体的组合模型，该模型利用了随机生成的流动性矩阵。

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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dba/10879667/ba61925a5262/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dba/10879667/ef4f8dcfc639/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dba/10879667/4448c1853376/gr4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dba/10879667/83b8eed50438/gr5.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dba/10879667/08502ccacdcb/gr7.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dba/10879667/50f37cfebebc/gr8.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dba/10879667/7bc32be22a69/gr9a.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dba/10879667/53440f86d53e/gr10.jpg
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本文引用的文献

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Combinational Recommendation of Vaccinations, Mask-Wearing, and Home-Quarantine to Control Influenza in Megacities: An Agent-Based Modeling Study With Large-Scale Trajectory Data.基于大轨迹数据的元胞自动机模型研究：组合推荐疫苗接种、戴口罩和居家隔离以控制特大城市流感
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