Weiss Katja, Valero David, Andrade Marilia Santos, Villiger Elias, Thuany Mabliny, Knechtle Beat
Institute of Primary Care, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Ultra Sports Science Foundation, Pierre-Benite, France.
Front Sports Act Living. 2024 Feb 8;6:1214929. doi: 10.3389/fspor.2024.1214929. eCollection 2024.
Our study examined 16,611 records of professional triathletes from 163 Ironman® 70.3 races across 97 countries (2004-2020). The aim was to identify the most predictive discipline-swim, bike, or run-for overall race time.
We used correlation matrices to compare the dependent variable "finish time" with independent variables "swim time," "bike time," and "run time." This analysis was conducted separately for male and female athletes. Additionally, univariate and multiple linear regression models assessed the strength of these associations.
The results indicated that "bike time" had the strongest correlation with finish time (0.85), followed by "run time" (0.75 for females, 0.82 for males) and "swim time" (0.46 for females, 0.63 for males). Regression models confirmed "bike time" as the strongest predictor of overall race time (² = 0.8), with "run time" and "swim time" being less predictive.
The study concludes that in Ironman 70.3 races, "bike time" is the most significant predictor of overall race performance for both sexes, suggesting a focus on cycling in training and competition strategies. It also highlights a smaller performance gap between genders in swimming than in cycling or running.
我们的研究调查了来自97个国家163场铁人三项70.3赛事的16611名职业铁人三项运动员的记录（2004 - 2020年）。目的是确定对总比赛时间预测性最强的项目——游泳、自行车或跑步。
我们使用相关矩阵将因变量“完赛时间”与自变量“游泳时间”“自行车时间”和“跑步时间”进行比较。该分析分别对男性和女性运动员进行。此外，单变量和多元线性回归模型评估了这些关联的强度。
结果表明，“自行车时间”与完赛时间的相关性最强（0.85），其次是“跑步时间”（女性为0.75，男性为0.82）和“游泳时间”（女性为0.46，男性为0.63）。回归模型证实“自行车时间”是总比赛时间的最强预测因素（² = 0.8），“跑步时间”和“游泳时间”的预测性较弱。
该研究得出结论，在铁人三项70.3赛事中，“自行车时间”是男女总比赛成绩的最重要预测因素，这表明在训练和比赛策略中应注重自行车项目。研究还强调，与自行车或跑步项目相比，游泳项目中男女之间的成绩差距较小。
