Šošić Mara, Boban Zvonimir, Erceg Marijan, Boban Nataša
Department of Clinical Epidemiology, University Hospital of Split, 21000 Split, Croatia.
Department of Medical Physics and Biophysics, University of Split School of Medicine, 21000 Split, Croatia.
Infect Dis Rep. 2024 Feb 20;16(2):142-153. doi: 10.3390/idr16020011.
Excess mortality is often used to estimate the effect of a certain crisis on the population. It is defined as the number of deaths during a crisis exceeding the expected number based on historical trends. Here, we calculated excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic for Croatia in the 2020-2021 period. The excess was calculated on the national and county level for different age and sex categories. In addition to the absolute number, the excess mortality was also expressed as a ratio of excess deaths to the predicted baseline and excess mortality rate. We showed that using both measures is necessary to avoid incorrect conclusions. The estimated excess mortality on the national level was 14,963, corresponding to an excess percentage of 14.3%. With respect to sex, there was a higher excess mortality rate for men compared to women. An exponential relationship was observed between age and the excess mortality rate.These trends wee representative of most counties as well, with large variations in the magnitude of the effect. However, there were also exceptions to the general rule. The reasons for these deviations were discussed in terms of between-county differences in demographic structure, population density and special events that took place during the pandemic.
超额死亡率常被用于估计某一危机对人口的影响。它被定义为危机期间的死亡人数超过基于历史趋势预期的死亡人数。在此，我们计算了克罗地亚在2020 - 2021年期间因新冠疫情导致的超额死亡率。超额死亡率是在国家和县级层面针对不同年龄和性别类别进行计算的。除了绝对数字外，超额死亡率还表示为超额死亡人数与预测基线的比率以及超额死亡率。我们表明，使用这两种度量方法对于避免得出错误结论是必要的。国家层面估计的超额死亡人数为14,963人，超额百分比为14.3%。就性别而言，男性的超额死亡率高于女性。年龄与超额死亡率之间存在指数关系。这些趋势在大多数县也具有代表性，只是影响程度存在很大差异。然而，也有一些普遍规律的例外情况。这些偏差的原因从各县在人口结构、人口密度以及疫情期间发生的特殊事件方面的差异进行了讨论。
