Department of Epidemiology, Brown School of Public Health, Providence, RI; Harvard Injury Control Research Center, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA.
Department of Epidemiology, Brown School of Public Health, Providence, RI.
J Pediatr. 2024 Jun;269:113975. doi: 10.1016/j.jpeds.2024.113975. Epub 2024 Feb 23.
To determine if firearm ownership is positively related to elevated child lead levels at a state-level, even when accounting for other sources of lead.
For this cross-sectional ecological study, we investigated whether household firearm ownership rates (a proxy for firearm-related lead exposure) was associated with the prevalence of elevated child blood lead levels in 44 US States between 2012 and 2018. To account for potential confounding, we adjusted for other known lead exposures, poverty rate, population density, race, and calendar year. To address missing data, we used multiple imputation by chained equations.
Prevalence of elevated child blood lead positively correlated with household firearm ownership and established predictors of lead exposure. In fully adjusted negative binomial regression models, child blood lead was positively associated with household firearm ownership and older housing; each IQR (14%) increase in household firearm ownership rate was associated with a 41% higher prevalence of childhood elevated blood lead (prevalence ratio: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.11-1.79).
These data provide state-level evidence that firearms may be an important source of child lead exposure. More research is needed to substantiate this relationship and identify modifiable pathways of exposure at the individual level.
即使考虑到其他铅源,也要确定枪支拥有量是否与州一级儿童血铅水平升高呈正相关。
在这项横断面生态研究中,我们调查了 2012 年至 2018 年间,44 个美国州的家庭枪支拥有率(枪支相关铅暴露的代表)是否与儿童血铅水平升高的流行率有关。为了考虑潜在的混杂因素,我们调整了其他已知的铅暴露、贫困率、人口密度、种族和日历年份。为了解决缺失数据,我们使用了链式方程的多重插补。
儿童血铅升高的流行率与家庭枪支拥有量和已知的铅暴露预测因素呈正相关。在完全调整的负二项回归模型中,儿童血铅与家庭枪支拥有量和较旧的住房呈正相关;家庭枪支拥有率每增加 14%(IQR),儿童血铅升高的流行率就会增加 41%(患病率比:1.41,95%CI:1.11-1.79)。
这些数据提供了州一级的证据,表明枪支可能是儿童铅暴露的一个重要来源。需要进一步的研究来证实这种关系,并确定个体层面可改变的暴露途径。