Michael Siegel is with the Department of Community Health Sciences, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA. Craig S. Ross is with Virtual Media Resources, Natick, MA. Charles King III is with Greylock McKinnon Associates, Cambridge, and Pleiades Consulting Group, Lincoln, MA.
Am J Public Health. 2013 Nov;103(11):2098-105. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2013.301409. Epub 2013 Sep 12.
We examined the relationship between levels of household firearm ownership, as measured directly and by a proxy-the percentage of suicides committed with a firearm-and age-adjusted firearm homicide rates at the state level.
We conducted a negative binomial regression analysis of panel data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting Systems database on gun ownership and firearm homicide rates across all 50 states during 1981 to 2010. We determined fixed effects for year, accounted for clustering within states with generalized estimating equations, and controlled for potential state-level confounders.
Gun ownership was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates (incidence rate ratio = 1.009; 95% confidence interval = 1.004, 1.014). This model indicated that for each percentage point increase in gun ownership, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9%.
We observed a robust correlation between higher levels of gun ownership and higher firearm homicide rates. Although we could not determine causation, we found that states with higher rates of gun ownership had disproportionately large numbers of deaths from firearm-related homicides.
我们研究了家庭枪支拥有水平与通过直接测量和代理指标（枪支自杀率）的关系，以及州一级的年龄调整枪支凶杀率。
我们对疾病控制和预防中心的基于网络的伤害统计查询和报告系统数据库中的面板数据进行了负二项回归分析，该数据库涵盖了 1981 年至 2010 年全美 50 个州的枪支拥有和枪支凶杀率。我们确定了年度的固定效应，使用广义估计方程考虑了各州内的聚类，并控制了潜在的州一级混杂因素。
枪支拥有是枪支凶杀率的一个显著预测因素（发病率比=1.009；95%置信区间=1.004，1.014）。该模型表明，枪支拥有率每增加 1%，枪支凶杀率就增加 0.9%。
我们观察到枪支拥有水平较高与枪支凶杀率较高之间存在强有力的相关性。尽管我们无法确定因果关系，但我们发现枪支拥有率较高的州，与枪支相关的凶杀死亡人数不成比例地增加。
