Department of Clinical Laboratory, Guangxi Medical University Cancer Hospital, Nanning, People's Republic of China.
Department of Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, People's Republic of China.
Cancer Control. 2024 Jan-Dec;31:10732748241236333. doi: 10.1177/10732748241236333.
Uncertainty surrounds the usefulness of inflammatory markers in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients for predicting postoperative pulmonary metastasis (PM). The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive value of inflammatory markers as well as to create a new nomogram model for predicting PM.
Cox regression was utilized to identify independent prognostic variables and to create a nomogram that predicted PM for comparison with a validation cohort and other prediction systems. We retrospectively analyzed a total of 1109 cases with HCC were included.
The systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI) and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) were independent risk factors for PM, with a concordance index of .78 (95% CI: .74-.81) for the nomogram. The areas under the curve of the nomograms for PM predicted at 1-, 3-, and 5-year were .82 (95% CI: .77-.87), .82 (95% CI: .78-.87) and .81 (95% CI: .75-.86), respectively, which were better than those of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer and China liver cancer stage. Decision curve analyses demonstrated a broader range of nomogram threshold probabilities.
A nomogram based on SIRI and APRI can accurately predict postoperative PM in HCC.
炎症标志物在预测肝细胞癌（HCC）患者术后肺转移（PM）方面的作用尚不确定。本研究旨在评估炎症标志物的预测价值，并建立一种新的列线图模型来预测 PM。
采用 Cox 回归分析确定独立的预后变量，并建立列线图来预测 PM，与验证队列和其他预测系统进行比较。我们回顾性分析了共 1109 例 HCC 患者。
全身性炎症反应指数（SIRI）和天冬氨酸氨基转移酶-血小板比值指数（APRI）是 PM 的独立危险因素，列线图的一致性指数为.78（95%CI：.74-.81）。列线图预测 PM 的 1、3 和 5 年 AUC 分别为.82（95%CI：.77-.87）、.82（95%CI：.78-.87）和.81（95%CI：.75-.86），均优于巴塞罗那临床肝癌和中国肝癌分期。决策曲线分析表明，列线图的阈值概率范围更广。
基于 SIRI 和 APRI 的列线图可准确预测 HCC 术后 PM。
