Lazzari Ester, Compans Marie-Caroline, Beaujouan Eva
University of Vienna (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, ÖAW, University of Vienna)).
Popul Stud (Camb). 2025 Mar;79(1):81-101. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2298678. Epub 2024 Mar 1.
While extensive literature documents the massive fertility delay of recent decades, knowledge about whether and how attitudes towards the timing of births have changed in Europe remains limited. Using data from two rounds of the European Social Survey, we investigate these changes and their association with macro-level fertility indicators in 21 countries. Between 2006-07 and 2018-19, societal consensus regarding the existence of optimal childbearing ages remained strong and became more in favour of later parenthood. Decomposition analyses show that these shifts were driven only partially by changes in population composition, supporting the idea that a general attitudinal change in favour of later childbearing is underway. We also find a trend towards gender convergence in upper age limits driven by the increasing social recognition of an age deadline for men's childbearing. Although shifts in perceived reproductive age windows occurred during periods of birth postponement, they corresponded only loosely to country-level changes in fertility.
虽然大量文献记录了近几十年来生育的大幅延迟，但关于欧洲对生育时间的态度是否以及如何发生变化的了解仍然有限。利用两轮欧洲社会调查的数据，我们研究了21个国家的这些变化及其与宏观层面生育指标的关联。在2006 - 07年至2018 - 19年期间，关于存在最佳生育年龄的社会共识依然强烈，并且更加倾向于晚育。分解分析表明，这些转变仅部分由人口构成变化驱动，这支持了一种观点，即正在发生有利于晚育的总体态度转变。我们还发现，由于社会对男性生育年龄限制的认可度不断提高，在生育上限方面存在性别趋同的趋势。尽管在生育推迟期间人们感知到的生育年龄窗口发生了变化，但它们与国家层面的生育率变化只是大致相符。
