Setz Ingrid, Compans Marie-Caroline, Beaujouan Éva
Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna, Austria.
Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences (OeAW), Vienna, Austria.
Popul Space Place. 2025 May 4;31(4). doi: 10.1002/psp.70031. eCollection 2025 May.
The rise in late fertility has emerged as a landmark trend in high-income countries in recent decades. Yet, its spread has been geographically uneven, which has largely been attributed to socioeconomic contextual factors. Our study introduces a new perspective: the role of spatial diffusion processes. We exploit the regional variation in the increase in the contribution of late fertility rates to total fertility to assess whether a region follows the behaviour of nearby regions in preceding periods. To test this, we use a comprehensive panel of 193 regions across 18 European countries and utilise a dynamic spatial Durbin model that captures both temporal and spatial interdependencies. After accounting for socioeconomic factors known to affect late fertility rates, such as the tertiarisation of education or changes in the opportunity structure of the labour market, we still find a significant association between geographic proximity and the rise in late fertility across European regions. This underlines the deep interconnectedness within and across contemporary societies. Thus, beyond socioeconomic transformations, our research provides empirical evidence that diffusion processes have contributed to the spread of late births across the continent, and will likely continue to shape future fertility trends.
近几十年来，晚育率上升已成为高收入国家的一个标志性趋势。然而，其传播在地域上并不均衡，这在很大程度上归因于社会经济背景因素。我们的研究引入了一个新的视角：空间扩散过程的作用。我们利用晚育率对总生育率贡献增加的区域差异，来评估一个地区是否遵循前一时期附近地区的行为模式。为了验证这一点，我们使用了涵盖18个欧洲国家193个地区的综合面板数据，并采用了一个动态空间杜宾模型，该模型能够捕捉时间和空间上的相互依存关系。在考虑了已知会影响晚育率的社会经济因素，如教育的第三产业化或劳动力市场机会结构的变化之后，我们仍然发现欧洲各地区之间的地理邻近性与晚育率上升之间存在显著关联。这凸显了当代社会内部和相互之间的紧密联系。因此，除了社会经济转型之外，我们的研究提供了实证证据，表明扩散过程促成了晚育在整个欧洲大陆的传播，并且可能会继续塑造未来的生育趋势。
