Rietveld Jochem, Hobson Tom, Avin Shahar, Sundaram Lalitha, Mani Lara
Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
F1000Res. 2024 Jan 3;11:514. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.111331.2. eCollection 2022.
The Lessons from Covid-19 Research Agenda offers a structure to study the COVID-19 pandemic and the pandemic response from a Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR) perspective. The agenda sets out the aims of our study, which is to investigate the key decisions and actions (or failures to decide or to act) that significantly altered the course of the pandemic, with the aim of improving disaster preparedness and response in the future. It also asks how we can transfer these lessons to other areas of (potential) global catastrophic risk management such as extreme climate change, radical loss of biodiversity and the governance of extreme risks posed by new technologies. Our study aims to identify key moments- 'inflection points'- that significantly shaped the catastrophic trajectory of COVID-19. To that end this Research Agenda has identified four broad clusters where such inflection points are likely to exist: pandemic preparedness, early action, vaccines and non-pharmaceutical interventions. The aim is to drill down into each of these clusters to ascertain whether and how the course of the pandemic might have gone differently, both at the national and the global level, using counterfactual analysis. Four aspects are used to assess candidate inflection points within each cluster: 1. the information available at the time; 2. the decision-making processes used; 3. the capacity and ability to implement different courses of action, and 4. the communication of information and decisions to different publics. The Research Agenda identifies crucial questions in each cluster for all four aspects that should enable the identification of the key lessons from COVID-19 and the pandemic response.
《新冠疫情研究议程的经验教训》提供了一个框架，用于从全球灾难性风险（GCR）的角度研究新冠疫情及疫情应对措施。该议程阐述了我们的研究目标，即调查那些显著改变疫情走向的关键决策和行动（或决策与行动的缺失），以期改善未来的灾难防范与应对工作。它还探讨了如何将这些经验教训应用于其他（潜在的）全球灾难性风险管理领域，如极端气候变化、生物多样性的急剧丧失以及新技术带来的极端风险治理。我们的研究旨在确定那些显著塑造了新冠疫情灾难性轨迹的关键时刻——“转折点”。为此，本研究议程确定了四个广泛的类别，这些转折点可能存在于其中：疫情防范、早期行动、疫苗和非药物干预措施。目标是深入研究每个类别，通过反事实分析来确定在国家和全球层面上，疫情的发展过程是否以及如何可能有所不同。每个类别中的候选转折点通过四个方面进行评估：1. 当时可获取的信息；2. 所采用的决策过程；3. 实施不同行动方案的能力，以及4. 向不同公众传达信息和决策的情况。该研究议程针对这四个方面在每个类别中确定了关键问题，这些问题应有助于从新冠疫情及疫情应对措施中总结出关键经验教训。
