Jebeile Julie
Institute of Philosophy & Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
CNRM UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Toulouse, France.
Clim Change. 2024;177(3):53. doi: 10.1007/s10584-024-03693-7. Epub 2024 Feb 29.
Today, a major challenge for climate science is to overcome what is called the "usability gap" between the projections derived fromclimate models and the needs of the end-users. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are expected to provide usable information concerning a variety of impacts and for a wide range of end-users. It is often assumed that the development of more accurate, more complex RCMs with higher spatial resolution should bring process understanding and better local projections, thus overcoming the usability gap. In this paper, I rather assume that the credibility of climate information should be pursued together with two other criteria of usability, which are salience and legitimacy. Based on the Swiss climate change scenarios, I study the attempts at meeting the needs of end-users and outline the trade-off modellers and users have to face with respect to the cascade of uncertainty. A conclusion of this paper is that the trade-off between salience and credibility sets the conditions under which RCMs can be deemed adequate for the purposes of addressing the needs of end-users and gearing the communication of the projections toward direct use and action.
如今,气候科学面临的一项重大挑战是克服气候模型预测结果与终端用户需求之间所谓的“可用性差距”。区域气候模型(RCMs)有望为各类终端用户提供有关多种影响的可用信息。人们通常认为,开发具有更高空间分辨率的更精确、更复杂的区域气候模型应能增进对过程的理解并提供更好的局部预测,从而克服可用性差距。在本文中,我更倾向于认为,气候信息的可信度应与另外两个可用性标准——显著性和合法性——一同加以考量。基于瑞士气候变化情景,我研究了满足终端用户需求的种种尝试,并概述了建模者和用户在面对一系列不确定性时必须做出的权衡。本文的一个结论是,显著性与可信度之间的权衡设定了一些条件,在这些条件下,区域气候模型可被视为足以满足终端用户需求,并使预测结果的传播朝着直接应用和行动的方向发展。