Ding Xiaoqiang, Tian Xiangliang, Wang Jinhui
College of Ocean Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, 201306, China.
Institute of Mine Safety Technology, China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing, 100012, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Mar 13;14(1):6063. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-56230-y.
A risk assessment method for hot work based on G1-EWM and unascertained measurement theory was proposed to prevent hot work accidents in underground mines. Firstly, based on the risk influencing factors and classification criteria for underground hot work operations in mines, a single indicator measurement matrix was constructed using unascertained measurement theory; Secondly, a risk assessment index system for mine underground hot work operations was established. The combination weight coefficient of each index was determined using the order relationship analysis method (G1) and entropy weight method (EWM) and coupled with the single index measurement evaluation vector to calculate the multi-index comprehensive evaluation vector of the evaluation object; Finally, the model was validated and examined using engineering examples, and the evaluation level was determined using confidence identification criteria. The results showed that the proposed method, when used to evaluate the risk of hot work operations in tunnels and vertical shafts in metal mines, produces risk levels that are in line with reality III (Moderate Risk) for the vertical shaft and IV (High Risk) for the tunnels. The evaluation model results are consistent with the risk evaluation results the whole process of on-site hot work, which verifies the model feasibility. A unique strategy and method for risk management in hot work operations in underground mines is provided by the combination of weighting and unascertained measure models, which has theoretical and practical value. Future research could focus on refineing this model by exploring the applicability in diverse mining environments and integrating advanced analytical techniques to enhance the predictive accuracy and operational efficiency.
为预防地下矿山动火作业事故,提出了一种基于G1-EWM和未确知测度理论的动火作业风险评估方法。首先,根据矿山地下动火作业的风险影响因素和分类标准,运用未确知测度理论构建单指标测度矩阵;其次,建立矿山地下动火作业风险评估指标体系,采用序关系分析法(G1)和熵权法(EWM)确定各指标的组合权重系数,并结合单指标测度评价向量计算评价对象的多指标综合评价向量;最后,通过工程实例对模型进行验证和检验,利用置信度识别准则确定评价等级。结果表明,该方法用于评估金属矿山巷道和竖井动火作业风险时,竖井风险等级为Ⅲ级(中度风险),巷道风险等级为Ⅳ级(高度风险),与现场动火作业全过程风险评估结果一致,验证了模型的可行性。权重与未确知测度模型相结合,为地下矿山动火作业风险管理提供了独特的策略和方法,具有理论和实用价值。未来研究可聚焦于通过探索该模型在不同采矿环境中的适用性以及整合先进分析技术来优化模型,以提高预测精度和运行效率。