Bayesian inference of relative fitness on high-throughput pooled competition assays.

The tracking of lineage frequencies via DNA barcode sequencing enables the quantification of microbial fitness. However, experimental noise coming from biotic and abiotic sources complicates the computation of a reliable inference. We present a Bayesian pipeline to infer relative microbial fitness from high-throughput lineage tracking assays. Our model accounts for multiple sources of noise and propagates uncertainties throughout all parameters in a systematic way. Furthermore, using modern variational inference methods based on automatic differentiation, we are able to scale the inference to a large number of unique barcodes. We extend this core model to analyze multi-environment assays, replicate experiments, and barcodes linked to genotypes. On simulations, our method recovers known parameters within posterior credible intervals. This work provides a generalizable Bayesian framework to analyze lineage tracking experiments. The accompanying open-source software library enables the adoption of principled statistical methods in experimental evolution.