Zhu Haicheng, Fang Hao, Hua Feilong, Shao Wei, Cai Penghui
School of Econimics, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Hangzhou, 310018, China.
Department of Sinology, KU Leuven, Leuven, 3000, Belgium.
Heliyon. 2024 Feb 24;10(5):e27091. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e27091. eCollection 2024 Mar 15.
China's economy has transitioned into a phase of high-quality development, with enhancing its industrial structure becoming a critical objective. We gathered panel data from 30 major provinces in China from 2010 to 2020 and employed the fixed effects model to assess the actual influence of environmental regulations on industrial structure upgrading. Our empirical findings show that the impacts of various environmental regulations on industrial structure upgrading in China are significantly different. Mandatory environmental regulation demonstrates an inverted U-shaped nonlinear correlation with the upgrading level of the entire industrial structure. When the intensity of this regulation is low, it significantly accelerates industrial structure upgrading. As the intensity of this regulation rises, its effect on industrial structure upgrading is inhibitory. In contrast, induced environmental regulation exhibits a nonlinear U-shaped relationship with industrial structure upgrading and shows a nonlinear change trend of first decreasing and then rising. When the intensity of induced environmental regulation reaches a certain critical point and continues to increase, it will change from a negative influence on the upgrading of the industrial structure to a promoting effect. The further discussion of threshold regression and the robustness test also led to similar conclusions. The above research is conducive to the Chinese government's rational use of environmental regulation tools to promote industrial structure upgrading. It is also beneficial to developing countries, allowing them to learn from China's experience to improve the effectiveness of environmental regulation and boost their industrial development.
中国经济已进入高质量发展阶段，提升产业结构成为关键目标。我们收集了2010年至2020年中国30个主要省份的面板数据，并采用固定效应模型来评估环境规制对产业结构升级的实际影响。我们的实证研究结果表明，中国各类环境规制对产业结构升级的影响存在显著差异。强制性环境规制与整个产业结构升级水平呈现倒U形非线性关系。当该规制强度较低时，它显著加速产业结构升级。随着该规制强度上升，其对产业结构升级的作用具有抑制性。相比之下，诱导性环境规制与产业结构升级呈现非线性U形关系，并呈现出先下降后上升的非线性变化趋势。当诱导性环境规制强度达到某个临界点并持续增加时，它将从对产业结构升级的负面影响转变为促进作用。阈值回归的进一步讨论和稳健性检验也得出了类似结论。上述研究有利于中国政府合理运用环境规制工具来推动产业结构升级。对发展中国家也有益处，使它们能够借鉴中国经验，提高环境规制有效性并促进其产业发展。
