School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, China.
College of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Mar 21;19(3):e0300272. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0300272. eCollection 2024.
To tackle the global water imbalance problem, a multitude of inter-basin water transfer projects have been built worldwide in recent decades. Nevertheless, given the complexity and safety challenges associated with project operation, effective emergency decision-making is crucial for addressing unforeseen incidents. Hence, this research has developed a two-stage emergency decision-making framework to tackle the uncertainty in the development trends of emergencies in inter-basin water transfer projects. (1) The first stage mainly utilizes case-based reasoning techniques to extract historical case information and disposal plans for inter-basin water transfer projects. Subsequently, a holistic similarity model is built by employing structural similarity and local attribute similarity algorithms to identify highly similar historical cases. (2) The second stage involves the optimization and adjustment of decision-making plans based on the dynamic evolution characteristics of emergencies. It utilizes the theory of decision-makers regret psychology and combines it with practical case studies to verify the scientific rationality of the method. This enables it to achieve effective multidimensional expression and rapid matching of scenarios, satisfying the decision-making requirements of "scenario response". Finally, this study compares the results obtained from this method with those computed using the traditional TOPSIS method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, further validating its feasibility and effectiveness. In practice, this method can provide effective support for decision-makers work.
为解决全球水资源失衡问题，近几十年来，全球范围内建设了许多跨流域调水工程。然而，鉴于项目运行所涉及的复杂性和安全挑战，有效的应急决策对于应对突发情况至关重要。因此，本研究提出了一种两阶段应急决策框架，以应对跨流域调水工程中突发事件发展趋势的不确定性。（1）第一阶段主要利用基于案例的推理技术提取跨流域调水工程的历史案例信息和处置方案。随后，通过结构相似性和局部属性相似性算法构建整体相似性模型，识别高度相似的历史案例。（2）第二阶段基于突发事件的动态演化特征，对决策方案进行优化和调整。它利用决策者后悔心理理论，并结合实际案例研究，验证了该方法的科学合理性。这使得它能够实现有效多维表达和快速场景匹配，满足“场景响应”的决策要求。最后，本研究将该方法的结果与传统 TOPSIS 方法和模糊综合评价方法的计算结果进行比较，进一步验证了其可行性和有效性。在实际应用中，该方法可为决策者提供有效支持。
