Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA.
United States Department of Agriculture ARS, Carl Hayden Bee Research Center, Tucson, AZ, USA.
Sci Rep. 2024 Mar 25;14(1):5410. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-55327-8.
Honey bees and other pollinators are critical for food production and nutritional security but face multiple survival challenges. The effect of climate change on honey bee colony losses is only recently being explored. While correlations between higher winter temperatures and greater colony losses have been noted, the impacts of warmer autumn and winter temperatures on colony population dynamics and age structure as an underlying cause of reduced colony survival have not been examined. Focusing on the Pacific Northwest US, our objectives were to (a) quantify the effect of warmer autumns and winters on honey bee foraging activity, the age structure of the overwintering cluster, and spring colony losses, and (b) evaluate indoor cold storage as a management strategy to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. We perform simulations using the VARROAPOP population dynamics model driven by future climate projections to address these objectives. Results indicate that expanding geographic areas will have warmer autumns and winters extending honey bee flight times. Our simulations support the hypothesis that late-season flight alters the overwintering colony age structure, skews the population towards older bees, and leads to greater risks of colony failure in the spring. Management intervention by moving colonies to cold storage facilities for overwintering has the potential to reduce honey bee colony losses. However, critical gaps remain in how to optimize winter management strategies to improve the survival of overwintering colonies in different locations and conditions. It is imperative that we bridge the gaps to sustain honey bees and the beekeeping industry and ensure food and nutritional security.
蜜蜂和其他传粉媒介对粮食生产和营养安全至关重要，但它们面临着多种生存挑战。气候变化对蜜蜂种群损失的影响最近才开始被探索。虽然已经注意到冬季温度升高与蜂群损失增加之间存在相关性，但温暖的秋季和冬季温度对蜂群种群动态和年龄结构的影响，以及这些因素作为导致蜂群存活率降低的潜在原因，尚未得到检验。本研究以美国太平洋西北地区为重点，目的是：(a) 量化温暖的秋季和冬季对蜜蜂觅食活动、越冬蜂团的年龄结构以及春季蜂群损失的影响；(b) 评估室内冷藏作为减轻气候变化负面影响的管理策略。我们使用 VARROAPOP 种群动态模型进行模拟，该模型由未来气候预测驱动，以解决这些目标。结果表明，更广泛的地理区域将拥有更温暖的秋季和冬季，从而延长蜜蜂的飞行时间。我们的模拟结果支持这样一种假设，即晚季飞行改变了越冬蜂群的年龄结构，使蜂群向更老的蜜蜂倾斜，并导致春季蜂群失败的风险增加。将蜂群转移到冷藏设施中越冬的管理干预措施有可能减少蜜蜂蜂群的损失。然而，如何优化冬季管理策略以提高不同地点和条件下越冬蜂群的存活率，仍存在关键差距。当务之急是弥合这些差距，以维持蜜蜂和养蜂业，并确保粮食和营养安全。
