Ming Hao, Lin Mingyi, Gao Ciwei, Zhang Ning, Xie Le, Mou Yuting
Department of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, No.2 Sipailou, Xuanwu District, Nanjing, 210096, Jiangsu Province, China.
Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, No.30 Shuangqing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100084, Beijing, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Mar 11;10(6):e27970. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e27970. eCollection 2024 Mar 30.
With the target of achieving carbon peaking and neutrality in the power sector in China, both State Grid and China Southern Power Grid have made plans of a rapid increase of renewables in future years towards 2060. However, considering the interactions between the power system and meteorological, society factors, whether those plans would lead to CO emission peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060 is still questionable and needs further analysis. Therefore, a Power-Meteorology-Society System is formulated and interactions between these factors will impact the CO emission of the power system is studied. Case study shows that these environmental, social factors as well as their interactions will have significant negative impact to the CO emission reduction in China's power grid; With current trend of generation and transmission development and higher-than-expected CO emission, while the grid could still reach its target of carbon peak in 2030, there will be some challenge for the grid to reach carbon neutrality in the year 2060. Based on that, the authors analyze some potential solutions such as transmission construction, energy storage and the Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS), and try to find a relatively cost-benefit path to reach carbon-neutrality for the grid in 2060.
以实现中国电力行业碳达峰和碳中和为目标，国家电网和南方电网都制定了到2060年未来几年可再生能源快速增长的计划。然而，考虑到电力系统与气象、社会因素之间的相互作用，这些计划是否会导致2030年碳排放峰值和2060年碳中和仍存在疑问，需要进一步分析。因此，构建了电力-气象-社会系统，并研究了这些因素之间的相互作用对电力系统碳排放的影响。案例研究表明，这些环境、社会因素及其相互作用将对中国电网的碳排放减少产生重大负面影响；按照当前发电和输电发展趋势以及高于预期的碳排放情况，虽然电网仍能在2030年实现碳峰值目标，但在2060年实现碳中和将面临一些挑战。基于此，作者分析了一些潜在的解决方案，如输电建设、储能和碳捕获、利用与封存（CCUS），并试图找到一条相对成本效益较高的路径，以实现电网在2060年的碳中和。
