A Retrospective Study (2015-2020) on the Risk Factors Associated with the Persistence and Spread of Brucellosis in Buffalo Farms in Caserta Province, Italy.

Bovine and bubaline brucellosis is still present in some regions of Italy. Although control and eradication measures have been implemented for several years, the brucellosis situation remains problematic in the Campania region. The infection is present in the provinces of Salerno and Caserta, with the latter experiencing a drastic increase in the prevalence and incidence of infection in buffalo species (Bubalus bubalis) in recent years. The brucellosis eradication plan in Italy is subject to the European co-financing system, and failure to achieve the objectives of the plan has resulted in economic cuts for the Campania Region for years. This study aimed to evaluate the possible risk factors associated with the spread and persistence of brucellosis infection on buffalo farms in the Province of Caserta. The results of official controls carried out from 2015 to 2020 on the buffalo farms of the Province were analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed by means of the R software (version 4.1.0) on a final dataset consisting of 4583 observations. The possible association between covariates and outcome (presence/absence of infection) was evaluated (T-Fisher and Wilcoxon). A logistic regression model with mixed effects was carried out. The study shows that the risk of infection is statistically associated with the density of farms per square km and previous notifications of abortions on the same farms. Furthermore, animal movements constitute a risk factor for the permanence of infection over time (OR > 1), and herds already infected prior to 2015 were seen to have an almost three-fold higher risk of developing the disease (OR = 3.35).