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一项关于2020年秋冬季节(大规模接种疫苗前)和2021年(大规模接种疫苗后)意大利COVID-19趋势的全国性真实世界研究,并结合每年死亡负担的回顾性分析。

A Real-World Nationwide Study on COVID-19 Trend in Italy during the Autumn-Winter Season of 2020 (before Mass Vaccination) and 2021 (after Mass Vaccination) Integrated with a Retrospective Analysis of the Mortality Burden per Year.

作者信息

Roncati Luca, Galeazzi Carlo, Bartolacelli Giulia, Caramaschi Stefania

机构信息

Department of Surgery, Medicine, Dentistry and Morphological Sciences with Interest in Transplantation, Oncology and Regenerative Medicine, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41121 Modena, Italy.

Department of Maternal, Infant and Adult Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41121 Modena, Italy.

出版信息

Microorganisms. 2024 Feb 21;12(3):435. doi: 10.3390/microorganisms12030435.


DOI:10.3390/microorganisms12030435
PMID:38543486
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10972431/
Abstract

UNLABELLED: SARS-CoV-2 virulence is known to increase with lowering of environmental temperature and solar ultraviolet radiation; therefore, we have focused our real-world nationwide study concerning with COVID-19 trend and dynamics on the coldest seasons of the year in Italy, the Western country hardest hit at the onset of the pandemic, comparing the autumn-winter of 2020 (before mass vaccination but when the emergency machinery was fully operative in terms of tracing and swabs) with the autumn-winter of 2021 (after mass vaccination), and analyzing the mortality burden by age groups and life stages in the years 2019 (pre-COVID-19), 2020 (before mass vaccination), and 2021 (after mass vaccination). METHODS: During the state of national health emergency, the Civil Defense Department released the aggregate data coming from the Higher Institute of Health, the Ministry of Health, the Italian Regions, and the Independent Provinces, to inform the population about the pandemic situation, daily. Among these data, there were the number of contagions, performed swabs, hospitalizations in Intensive Care Units (ICU), non-ICU patients, and deaths. By means of a team effort, we have collected and elaborated all these data, comparing the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy during the autumn-winter of 2020 with the autumn-winter of 2021. Moreover, we have extracted from the database of the National Institute of Statistics the total number of annual deaths in Italy during the years 2019, 2020, and 2021, comparing them to each other in order to evaluate the mortality burden attributable to COVID-19. RESULTS: From the autumn-winter of 2020 to the autumn-winter of 2021, the contagions increased by ≈285%, against a ≈290% increase in the performed swabs; therefore, the mean positivity rate passed from 8.74% before mass vaccination to 8.59% after mass vaccination. The unprecedent vaccination campaign allowed a ≈251% abatement in COVID-19 deaths, and a reduction of ≈224% and ≈228% in daily ICU and non-ICU hospitalizations due to COVID-19, respectively. Regarding COVID-19 deaths, in 2020, there was a mortality excess of ≈14.3% quantifiable in 105,900 more deaths compared to 2019, the pre-COVID-19 year; 103,183 out of 105,900 deaths occurred in older adults (≥60 years), which is equivalent to ≈97.4%, while in adults over 50, the segment of population just below older adults, in 2020, there were 2807 more deaths than in 2019. Surprisingly, from the analysis of our data, it is emerged that in people under the age of 40 in the years 2019, 2020, and 2021, there were 7103, 6808, and 7165 deaths, respectively. This means that in subjects under 40 during 2020, there were 295 fewer deaths than in 2019, while during 2021, there were 357 more deaths than in 2020, equivalent to ≈5.2% more. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 is a potential life-threatening disease mainly in older adults, as they are the most vulnerable due to inherent immunosenescence and inflammaging. Extensive vaccination in this segment of population with up-to-date vaccines is the means to reduce deaths, hospitalizations, and ICU pressure in the public interest. In the event of future threats, a new mass vaccination campaign should not be implemented without taking into account the individual age; it should primarily be aimed at people over 60 and at patients of any age with immune deficits, and secondly at people over 50. COVID-19 vaccination shows a favorable benefit-risk ratio in older adults, while the balance steps down under the age of 40; this younger segment of the population should be therefore exempt from any mandatory vaccination.

摘要

未标注:已知严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)的毒力会随着环境温度降低和太阳紫外线辐射减少而增强;因此,我们在意大利开展了一项全国性的实际研究,关注新冠疫情在一年中最寒冷季节的趋势和动态变化。意大利是疫情初期受影响最严重的西方国家。我们比较了2020年秋冬(大规模疫苗接种前,但追踪和拭子检测的应急机制已全面运作)和2021年秋冬(大规模疫苗接种后)的情况,并分析了2019年(新冠疫情前)、2020年(大规模疫苗接种前)和2021年(大规模疫苗接种后)不同年龄组和生命阶段的死亡负担。 方法:在国家卫生紧急状态期间,民防部门每天发布来自高等卫生研究所、卫生部、意大利各地区和独立省份的汇总数据,向民众通报疫情情况。这些数据包括感染人数、进行的拭子检测数、重症监护病房(ICU)住院人数、非ICU患者人数和死亡人数。通过团队协作,我们收集并整理了所有这些数据,比较了2020年秋冬和2021年秋冬意大利的新冠疫情情况。此外,我们从国家统计局数据库中提取了2019年、2020年和2021年意大利的年度死亡总数,并进行相互比较以评估新冠疫情导致的死亡负担。 结果:从2020年秋冬到2021年秋冬,感染人数增加了约285%,而进行拭子检测的数量增加了约290%;因此,平均阳性率从大规模疫苗接种前的8.74%降至接种后的8.59%。史无前例的疫苗接种运动使新冠死亡人数减少了约251%,因新冠导致的每日ICU和非ICU住院人数分别减少了约224%和228%。关于新冠死亡人数,2020年与新冠疫情前的2019年相比,可量化死亡人数多出约14.3%,即多了105,900人死亡;在这105,900例死亡中,103,183例发生在老年人(≥60岁)中,占比约97.4%;而在50岁以上的成年人(略低于老年人年龄段)中,2020年比2019年多死亡2807人。令人惊讶的是,通过对我们的数据进行分析发现,在2019年、2020年和2021年,40岁以下人群的死亡人数分别为7103人、6808人和7165人。这意味着2020年40岁以下人群的死亡人数比2019年减少了295人,而2021年比2020年多死亡357人,相当于多了约5.2%。 结论:新冠病毒病主要对老年人构成潜在生命威胁,因为他们由于内在的免疫衰老和炎症衰老而最为脆弱。为了公共利益,对这一年龄段人群广泛接种最新疫苗是减少死亡、住院和减轻ICU压力的手段。在未来面临威胁的情况下,如果不考虑个体年龄就不应开展新一波大规模疫苗接种运动;应主要针对60岁以上人群和任何年龄的免疫功能低下患者,其次是50岁以上人群。新冠疫苗接种在老年人中显示出良好的效益风险比,而在40岁以下人群中这种平衡则有所下降;因此,这一年轻人群体应免于任何强制接种。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3287/10972431/53d73d1adce0/microorganisms-12-00435-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3287/10972431/6b7a3f7e6021/microorganisms-12-00435-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3287/10972431/8c5ab34bb9fc/microorganisms-12-00435-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3287/10972431/eef70da53522/microorganisms-12-00435-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3287/10972431/9d2a3c8538e7/microorganisms-12-00435-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3287/10972431/53d73d1adce0/microorganisms-12-00435-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3287/10972431/6b7a3f7e6021/microorganisms-12-00435-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3287/10972431/8c5ab34bb9fc/microorganisms-12-00435-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3287/10972431/eef70da53522/microorganisms-12-00435-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3287/10972431/9d2a3c8538e7/microorganisms-12-00435-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3287/10972431/53d73d1adce0/microorganisms-12-00435-g005.jpg

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[1]
Case fatality rates of COVID-19 during epidemic periods of variants of concern: A meta-analysis by continents.

Int J Infect Dis. 2024-4

[2]
Trends in the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy during the Summers of 2020 (before Mass Vaccination), 2021 (after Primary Mass Vaccination) and 2022 (after Booster Mass Vaccination): A Real-World Nationwide Study Based on a Population of 58.85 Million People.

Pathogens. 2023-11-22

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Pathogens. 2022-4-3

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Lancet Healthy Longev. 2021-7

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Nat Commun. 2021-6-14

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Pathologic Antibodies to Platelet Factor 4 after ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccination.

N Engl J Med. 2021-6-10

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