CNR, National Research Council of Italy - Via Real Collegio, n. 30 (Collegio Carlo Alberto), 10024, Moncalieri (TO), Italy.
Environ Res. 2022 May 15;208:112711. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.112711. Epub 2022 Jan 13.
How is the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2020 with an health policy of full lockdowns and in 2021 with a vast campaign of vaccinations? The present study confronts this question here by developing a comparative analysis of the effects of COVID-19 pandemic between April-September 2020 (based upon strong control measures) and April-September 2021 (focused on health policy of vaccinations) in Italy, which was one of the first European countries to experience in 2020 high numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths and in 2021 Italy has a high share of people fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (>89% of population aged over 12 years in January 2022). Results suggest that over the period under study, the arithmetic mean of confirmed cases, hospitalizations of people and admissions to Intensive Care Units (ICUs) in 2020 and 2021 is significantly equal (p-value<0.01), except fatality rate. Results suggest in December 2021 lower hospitalizations, admissions to ICUs, and fatality rate of COVID-19 than December 2020, though confirmed cases and mortality rates are in 2021 higher than 2020, and likely converging trends in the first quarter of 2022. These findings reveal that COVID-19 pandemic is driven by seasonality and environmental factors that reduce the negative effects in summer period, regardless control measures and/or vaccination campaigns. These findings here can be of benefit to design health policy responses of crisis management considering the growth of COVID-19 pandemic in winter months having reduced temperatures and low solar radiations ( COVID-19 has a behaviour of influenza-like illness). Hence, findings here suggest that strategies of prevention and control of infectious diseases similar to COVID-19 should be set up in summer months and fully implemented during low-solar-irradiation periods (autumn and winter period).
2020 年全面封锁的卫生政策和 2021 年大规模疫苗接种运动下，2020 年的冠状病毒病 2019（COVID-19）动态如何？本研究通过对意大利 2020 年 4 月至 9 月（基于严格控制措施）和 2021 年 4 月至 9 月（重点为接种疫苗的卫生政策）期间 COVID-19 大流行的影响进行比较分析，回答了这一问题。意大利是 2020 年 COVID-19 相关感染人数和死亡人数较高的首批欧洲国家之一，2021 年意大利 COVID-19 疫苗完全接种率较高（2022 年 1 月，年龄在 12 岁以上的人群中，有超过 89%的人完全接种了 COVID-19 疫苗）。结果表明，在所研究的时期内，2020 年和 2021 年确诊病例、住院人数和重症监护病房（ICU）入院人数的算术平均值明显相等（p 值<0.01），除病死率外。结果表明，2021 年 12 月 COVID-19 的住院人数、ICU 入院人数和病死率均低于 2020 年 12 月，但 2021 年的确诊病例和死亡率均高于 2020 年，且 2022 年第一季度的趋势可能趋同。这些发现表明，COVID-19 大流行受季节性和环境因素驱动，这些因素在夏季降低了负面影响，无论控制措施和/或疫苗接种运动如何。这些发现可以帮助制定危机管理的卫生政策应对措施，考虑到冬季气温降低和太阳辐射减少（COVID-19 具有类流感疾病的行为），COVID-19 大流行的增长。因此，本研究结果表明，应在夏季设立与 COVID-19 类似的传染病预防和控制策略，并在低太阳辐射期（秋季和冬季）全面实施。
