Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Dalian Municipal Central Hospital, Dalian, Liaoning, China.
Dalian Municipal Central Hospital, China Medical University, Shenyang, Liaoning, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Apr 1;14(1):7681. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-57609-7.
To develop and validate a nomograph to predict the long-term survival probability of cervical cancer (CC) patients in Asia, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) were used to collect information about CC patients in Asia. The patient data were randomly sampled and divided into a training group and a validation group by 7:3. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to screen key indicators, and multivariate Cox regression model was used to establish a prognostic risk prediction model for CC patients. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were adopted to comprehensively evaluate the nomogram model. LASSO regression and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis showed that age, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Stage, AJCC T, tumor size, and surgery were independent risk factors for prognosis. The ROC curve results proved that the area under curve (AUC) values of the training group in 3 and 5 years were 0.837 and 0.818, The AUC values of the validation group in 3 and 5 years were 0.796 and 0.783. DCA showed that the 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) nomograms had good clinical potential value. The nomogram model developed in this study can effectively predict the prognosis of Asian patients with CC, and the risk stratification system based on this nomogram prediction model has some clinical value for discriminating high-risk patients.
为了开发和验证预测亚洲宫颈癌(CC)患者长期生存概率的列线图,我们使用监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库收集亚洲 CC 患者的信息。患者数据被随机抽样,并按 7:3 的比例分为训练组和验证组。使用最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归筛选关键指标,并使用多变量 Cox 回归模型建立 CC 患者的预后风险预测模型。采用接收者操作特征(ROC)曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA)对列线图模型进行综合评估。LASSO 回归和多变量 Cox 比例风险模型分析表明,年龄、美国癌症联合委员会(AJCC)分期、AJCC T 分期、肿瘤大小和手术是影响预后的独立危险因素。ROC 曲线结果表明,训练组在 3 年和 5 年的曲线下面积(AUC)值分别为 0.837 和 0.818,验证组在 3 年和 5 年的 AUC 值分别为 0.796 和 0.783。DCA 表明,3 年和 5 年总生存(OS)列线图具有良好的临床潜在价值。本研究开发的列线图模型可有效预测亚洲 CC 患者的预后,基于该列线图预测模型的风险分层系统对鉴别高危患者具有一定的临床价值。