Wong-Parodi Gabrielle, Relihan Daniel P, Garfin Dana Rose
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
PNAS Nexus. 2024 Apr 9;3(4):pgae099. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae099. eCollection 2024 Apr.
Climate change is occurring more rapidly than expected, requiring that people quickly and continually adapt to reduce human suffering. The reality is that climate change-related threats are unpredictable; thus, adaptive behavior must be continually performed even when threat saliency decreases (e.g. time has passed since climate-hazard exposure). Climate change-related threats are also intensifying; thus, new or more adaptive behaviors must be performed over time. Given the need to sustain climate change-related adaptation even when threat saliency decreases, it becomes essential to better understand how the relationship between risk perceptions and adaptation co-evolve over time. In this study, we present results from a probability-based representative sample of 2,774 Texas and Florida residents prospectively surveyed 5 times (2017-2022) in the presence and absence of exposure to tropical cyclones, a climate change-related threat. Distinct trajectories of personal risk perceptions emerged, with higher and more variable risk perceptions among the less educated and those living in Florida. Importantly, as tropical cyclone adaptation behaviors increased, personal risk perceptions decreased over time, particularly in the absence of storms, while future tropical cyclone risk perceptions remained constant. In sum, adapting occurs in response to current risk but may inhibit future action despite increasing future tropical cyclone risks. Our results suggest that programs and policies encouraging proactive adaptation investment may be warranted.
气候变化正在以比预期更快的速度发生，这要求人们迅速并持续地做出适应，以减轻人类的苦难。现实情况是，与气候变化相关的威胁是不可预测的；因此，即使威胁的显著性降低（例如，自遭受气候灾害以来已经过了一段时间），适应行为也必须持续进行。与气候变化相关的威胁也在加剧；因此，随着时间的推移，必须采取新的或更具适应性的行为。鉴于即使威胁显著性降低也需要持续进行与气候变化相关的适应，更好地理解风险认知与适应之间的关系如何随时间共同演变变得至关重要。在本研究中，我们展示了对2774名得克萨斯州和佛罗里达州居民进行概率抽样代表性调查的结果，这些居民在2017年至2022年期间接受了5次前瞻性调查，调查时既有遭受热带气旋（一种与气候变化相关的威胁）的情况，也有未遭受热带气旋的情况。出现了不同的个人风险认知轨迹，受教育程度较低的人和居住在佛罗里达州的人风险认知更高且更具变化性。重要的是，随着热带气旋适应行为的增加，个人风险认知随时间下降，特别是在没有风暴的情况下，而未来热带气旋风险认知保持不变。总之，适应是对当前风险做出的反应，但尽管未来热带气旋风险增加，适应可能会抑制未来的行动。我们的结果表明，可能有必要制定鼓励积极适应投资的计划和政策。
