Wang Yanzi, Wang Zhenhong
Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang'an University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, 710054, China.
School of Water and Environment, Chang'an University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, 710054, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Mar 30;10(7):e28519. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28519. eCollection 2024 Apr 15.
The global climate is undergoing extraordinary changes, profoundly influencing a variety of ecological processes. Understanding the distribution patterns and predicting the future of plant diversity is crucial for biodiversity conservation in the context of climate change. However, current studies on predictive geographic patterns of plant diversity often fail to separate the effects of global climate change from other influencing factors. In this study, we developed a spatial simulation model of spermatophyte family diversity (SSMSFD) based on data collected from 200 nature reserves covering approximately 1,500,000 km, where direct anthropogenic disturbances to plant diversity and the surrounding environment are absent. We predicted the spermatophyte family diversity for all provinces in China in 2020, 2040, and 2080, considering the impacts of global climate change. On average, China currently exhibits 118 plant families per 25 km, with a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. When considering only the effects of global climate change, excluding direct anthropogenic disturbances, our results indicate that under the Shared Socioeconomic Path Scenarios (SSPs) 245 and 585, spermatophyte family diversity is projected to slowly increase in most Chinese provinces from 2021 to 2080. Notably, the increase is more pronounced under SSPs585 compared to SSPs245. Global climate change has a positive effect on plant diversity, in contrast to the negative impact of anthropogenic disturbances that often lead to declines in plant diversity. This research highlights the contrasting outcomes of future plant diversity under the sole influence of global climate change and the significant negative effects of anthropogenic disturbances on diversity.
全球气候正在经历非凡变化，深刻影响着各种生态过程。了解植物多样性的分布格局并预测其未来对于气候变化背景下的生物多样性保护至关重要。然而，当前关于植物多样性预测地理格局的研究往往未能将全球气候变化的影响与其他影响因素区分开来。在本研究中，我们基于从200个自然保护区收集的数据开发了一个种子植物科多样性空间模拟模型（SSMSFD），这些自然保护区覆盖面积约150万平方公里，不存在对植物多样性和周边环境的直接人为干扰。考虑到全球气候变化的影响，我们预测了2020年、2040年和2080年中国各省的种子植物科多样性。目前，中国平均每25平方公里有118个植物科，从东南向西北呈递减趋势。当仅考虑全球气候变化的影响，排除直接人为干扰时，我们的结果表明，在共享社会经济路径情景（SSPs）245和585下，2021年至2080年中国大多数省份的种子植物科多样性预计将缓慢增加。值得注意的是，与SSPs245相比，SSPs585下的增加更为明显。与往往导致植物多样性下降的人为干扰的负面影响相反，全球气候变化对植物多样性有积极影响。这项研究突出了在全球气候变化单独影响下未来植物多样性的不同结果，以及人为干扰对多样性的重大负面影响。
