Hasan Najmul
Center for Modern Information Management, School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074, P.R. China.
Internet Things (Amst). 2020 Sep;11:100228. doi: 10.1016/j.iot.2020.100228. Epub 2020 May 28.
Predicting the Coronavirus epidemic, popularly known as COVID-19, that has been explored more than 200 countries and already declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization is an invaluable task. This virus was first identified around December 2019, from central China, but later spread in the rest of the world. To ensure better healthcare service management, an accurate prediction of the uncertain gruesomeness is situational demand. In orders with limited information frameworks, demonstrating and predicting COVID-19 turns into a challenging endeavor. The primary objective of this study is to propose a hybrid model that incorporates ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and artificial neural network (ANN) for predicting the COVID-19 epidemic. A real-time COVID-19 time series data has been used on the window periods January 22, 2020, to May 18, 2020. The time-series data first decomposed using EEMD to produce sub-signals and make original data denoised, and ANN architecture has built to train the denoised data. Finally, the result of the proposed model has compared with some traditional statistical analysis. The result of this investigation shows our proposed model outperforms compared with traditional statistical analysis. Thus the model might be promising for COVID-19 epidemic prediction. The government and healthcare provider can take preventive action by understanding the upcoming COVID-19 situation for better healthcare management.
预测冠状病毒疫情,即广为人知的COVID-19,这一疫情已在200多个国家被研究,且已被世界卫生组织宣布为大流行病,是一项极具价值的任务。这种病毒于2019年12月左右首次在中国中部被发现,但后来在世界其他地区传播。为确保更好的医疗服务管理,准确预测这种不确定的可怕情况是形势所需。在信息框架有限的情况下,论证和预测COVID-19成为一项具有挑战性的工作。本研究的主要目的是提出一种混合模型,该模型结合了集合经验模态分解(EEMD)和人工神经网络(ANN)来预测COVID-19疫情。使用了2020年1月22日至2020年5月18日窗口期的实时COVID-19时间序列数据。时间序列数据首先使用EEMD进行分解以产生子信号并对原始数据进行去噪,然后构建ANN架构来训练去噪后的数据。最后,将所提模型的结果与一些传统统计分析进行了比较。调查结果表明,我们提出的模型比传统统计分析表现更优。因此,该模型在COVID-19疫情预测方面可能很有前景。政府和医疗服务提供者可以通过了解即将到来的COVID-19情况采取预防措施,以实现更好的医疗管理。