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新冠疫情对公路货运的影响——以哥伦比亚为例的研究

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on road freight transportation - A Colombian case study.

作者信息

Gonzalez Juan Nicolas, Camarero-Orive Alberto, González-Cancelas Nicoletta, Guzman Andres Felipe

机构信息

Transport Research Centre - TRANSyT, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Calle Profesor Aranguren s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain.

Department of Transport Engineering, Urban and Regional Planning, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Calle Profesor Aranguren s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain.

出版信息

Res Transp Bus Manag. 2022 Jun;43:100802. doi: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2022.100802. Epub 2022 Mar 8.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc worldwide, with profound economic, environmental, and social implications. Fears about the economic situation have called attention to freight transportation performance as a derivative economic development demand. It is critical to economic growth, especially in industrialized countries with a strong positive relationship to road transport. The empirical evidence in developing countries, such as Colombia, showed that economic growth has had linked to road freight transport regardless of comparisons with other economic sectors. Thie main objective of the paper is to assess the impact caused by the COVID-19 restrictions on freight transport by road to depict the challenge between freight transport performance and economic growth. The total freight transported in 2020 was predicted based on a time series analysis considering the system's performance. As a result, in 2020, the ton of freight transported became only 40% of the predicted freight in the most critical month. The analysis can help planners implement policies to improve freight transport behavior and react during future economic downturns. Events such as the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrate that freight transportation must be fast and flexible, is crucial to act in the short term, and consider the long-term recovery. In addition, cooperation among the various economic sectors' stakeholders must be necessary.

摘要

新冠疫情在全球范围内造成了严重破坏,产生了深远的经济、环境和社会影响。对经济形势的担忧使人们将货运运输绩效作为派生的经济发展需求予以关注。这对经济增长至关重要,特别是在与公路运输有着紧密正向关系的工业化国家。在哥伦比亚等发展中国家的实证证据表明,无论与其他经济部门相比,经济增长都与公路货运运输相关联。本文的主要目的是评估新冠疫情限制措施对公路货运运输造成的影响,以描述货运运输绩效与经济增长之间的挑战。基于考虑系统绩效的时间序列分析,对2020年的总货运量进行了预测。结果显示,在2020年最关键的月份,货运吨数仅为预测货运量的40%。该分析有助于规划者实施政策,以改善货运运输行为,并在未来经济衰退期间做出反应。新冠疫情等事件表明,货运运输必须快速且灵活,在短期内采取行动至关重要,同时要考虑长期复苏。此外,各经济部门利益相关者之间的合作必不可少。

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