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货币联盟中动态宏观经济政策博弈的敏感性分析。

Sensitivity analysis for a dynamic macroeconomic policy game in a monetary union.

作者信息

Blueschke Dmitri, Blueschke-Nikolaeva Viktoria, Neck Reinhard

机构信息

Department of Economics, University of Klagenfurt, Universitätsstrasse 65-67, 9020 Klagenfurt, Austria.

出版信息

Cent Eur J Oper Res. 2024;32(2):507-520. doi: 10.1007/s10100-024-00907-2. Epub 2024 Mar 4.

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the sensitivity of the results of an earlier paper which presented and analyzed a dynamic game model of a monetary union with coalitions between governments (fiscal policy makers) and a common central bank (monetary policy maker). Here we examine alternative values of the parameters of the underlying model to show how the earlier results depend on the numerical parameter values chosen, which were obtained by calibration instead of econometric estimation. We demonstrate that the main results are qualitatively the same as in the original model for plausible smaller and larger values of the parameters. For the few cases where they differ, we interpret the deviations in economic terms and illustrate the policies and their macroeconomic effects resulting from the change to the parameter under consideration for one of these cases.

摘要

在本文中,我们考察了一篇早期论文结果的敏感性。那篇早期论文提出并分析了一个货币联盟的动态博弈模型,该模型涉及政府(财政政策制定者)与共同的中央银行(货币政策制定者)之间的联盟。在这里,我们考察基础模型参数的替代值,以表明早期结果如何依赖于所选择的数值参数值,这些参数值是通过校准而非计量经济学估计获得的。我们证明,对于合理的参数较小值和较大值,主要结果在定性上与原始模型相同。对于少数结果不同的情况,我们从经济角度解释这些偏差,并针对其中一种情况说明因所考虑参数变化而产生的政策及其宏观经济影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9b7d/11032285/d58a05fa0779/10100_2024_907_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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