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气温上升，树叶飘落：预测气候变化和土地利用变化下塞浦路斯特有橡树的命运。

Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus's Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change.

作者信息

Kougioumoutzis Konstantinos, Constantinou Ioannis, Panitsa Maria

机构信息

Laboratory of Botany, Department of Biology, University of Patras, 26504 Patras, Greece.

出版信息

Plants (Basel). 2024 Apr 16;13(8):1109. doi: 10.3390/plants13081109.

DOI:10.3390/plants13081109
PMID:38674518
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11053427/
Abstract

Endemic island species face heightened extinction risk from climate-driven shifts, yet standard models often underestimate threat levels for those like , an iconic Cypriot oak with pre-adaptations to aridity. Through species distribution modelling, we investigated the potential shifts in its distribution under future climate and land-use change scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines dispersal constraints, detailed soil characteristics, hydrological factors, and anticipated soil erosion data, offering a comprehensive assessment of environmental suitability. We quantified the species' sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability to projected changes, conducting a preliminary IUCN extinction risk assessment according to Criteria A and B. Our projections uniformly predict range reductions, with a median decrease of 67.8% by the 2070s under the most extreme scenarios. Additionally, our research indicates 's resilience to diverse erosion conditions and preference for relatively dry climates within a specific annual temperature range. The preliminary IUCN risk assessment designates as Critically Endangered in the future, highlighting the need for focused conservation efforts. Climate and land-use changes are critical threats to the species' survival, emphasising the importance of comprehensive modelling techniques and the urgent requirement for dedicated conservation measures to safeguard this iconic species.

摘要

地方性岛屿物种因气候驱动的变化而面临更高的灭绝风险，但标准模型往往低估了像[某种塞浦路斯橡树]这样的物种的威胁水平，这种橡树对干旱具有预先适应性。通过物种分布建模，我们研究了在未来气候和土地利用变化情景下其分布的潜在变化。我们的方法独特地结合了扩散限制、详细的土壤特征、水文因素和预期的土壤侵蚀数据，对环境适宜性进行了全面评估。我们量化了该物种对预测变化的敏感性、暴露程度和脆弱性，并根据标准A和B进行了初步的世界自然保护联盟（IUCN）灭绝风险评估。我们的预测一致显示其分布范围将缩小，在最极端情景下，到2070年代中位数减少67.8%。此外，我们的研究表明[该物种]对不同侵蚀条件具有恢复力，并且在特定的年温度范围内偏好相对干燥的气候。初步的IUCN风险评估将[该物种]在未来定为极度濒危物种，凸显了集中开展保护工作的必要性。气候和土地利用变化是该物种生存的关键威胁，强调了综合建模技术的重要性以及采取专门保护措施以保护这一标志性物种的迫切需求。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/75aed1a71136/plants-13-01109-g011.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/9fda8ffc391b/plants-13-01109-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/303d542e7d65/plants-13-01109-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/ff28691fe156/plants-13-01109-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/1306a90caab4/plants-13-01109-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/5a6e193b7df0/plants-13-01109-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/9c0680d13129/plants-13-01109-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/ea5b422ab667/plants-13-01109-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/78b4f470f67e/plants-13-01109-g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/628af8a7cf63/plants-13-01109-g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/f5b615f164d5/plants-13-01109-g010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/75aed1a71136/plants-13-01109-g011.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/9fda8ffc391b/plants-13-01109-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/303d542e7d65/plants-13-01109-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/ff28691fe156/plants-13-01109-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/1306a90caab4/plants-13-01109-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/5a6e193b7df0/plants-13-01109-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/9c0680d13129/plants-13-01109-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/ea5b422ab667/plants-13-01109-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/78b4f470f67e/plants-13-01109-g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/628af8a7cf63/plants-13-01109-g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/f5b615f164d5/plants-13-01109-g010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d57d/11053427/75aed1a71136/plants-13-01109-g011.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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Global pattern of forest disturbances and its shift under climate change.全球森林干扰格局及其在气候变化下的变化。
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More than 17,000 tree species are at risk from rapid global change.全球快速变化使超过 17000 个树种面临风险。
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Climate and Land-Cover Change Impacts and Extinction Risk Assessment of Rare and Threatened Endemic Taxa of Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park (Peloponnese, Greece).凯尔莫斯-沃拉伊科斯国家公园（希腊伯罗奔尼撒半岛）珍稀濒危特有分类群的气候和土地覆盖变化影响及灭绝风险评估
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