The high-risk features among patients undergoing mitral valve operation for ischemic mitral regurgitation: The 3-strike score.

OBJECTIVE

Ischemic mitral regurgitation is prevalent and associated with high surgical risk. With the less-invasive option of transcatheter edge-to-edge repair, the optimal patient selection for mitral valve operation for ischemic mitral regurgitation remains unclear. We sought to identify high-risk features in this group to guide patient selection.

METHODS

Using the Cardiothoracic Surgery Trial Network's severe ischemic mitral regurgitation trial data, we identified patient and echocardiographic characteristics associated with an increased risk of 2-year mortality using the support vector classifier and Cox proportional hazards model. We identified 6 high-risk features associated with 2-year survival. Patients were categorized into 3 groups, each having 1 or less, 2, or 3 or more of the 6 identified high-risk features.

RESULTS

Among the 251 patients, the median age was 69 (Q1 62, Q3 75) years, and 96 (38%) were female. Two-year mortality was 21% (n = 53). We identified 6 high-risk preoperative features: age 75 years or more (n = 69, 28%), prior sternotomy (n = 49, 20%), renal insufficiency (n = 69, 28%), gastrointestinal bleeding (n = 15, 6%), left ventricular ejection fraction less than 40% (n = 131, 52%), and ventricular end-systolic volume index less than 50 mL/m (n = 93, 37%). In patients who had 1 or less, 2, and 3 or more high-risk features, 90-day mortality was 4.2% (n = 5), 9.9% (n = 4), and 20.0% (n = 10), respectively (006), and 2-year mortality was 10% (n = 12), 22% (n = 18), and 46% (n = 23) (001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed the 3-strike score by identifying high-risk preoperative features for mitral valve surgery for ischemic mitral regurgitation. Patients having 3 or more of such high-risk features should undergo careful evaluation for surgical candidacy given the high early and late mortality after mitral valve operations.