Predictive nomograms based on gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase to prealbumin ratio for prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients without microvascular invasion.

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) presents a significant threat to individuals and healthcare systems due to its high recurrence rate. Accurate prognostic models are essential for improving patient outcomes. Gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) and prealbumin (PA) are biomarkers closely related to HCC. This study aimed to investigate the predictive value of the GGT to PA ratio (GPR) and to construct prognostic nomograms for HCC patients without microvascular invasion.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed data from 355 HCC patients who underwent radical hepatectomy at Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University between December 2012 and January 2021. Patients were randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 267) and a validation cohort (n = 88). The linearity of GPR was assessed using restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis, and the optimal cut-off value was determined by X-tile. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and log-rank tests were used to investigate the associations between GPR and both progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Cox multivariate regression analysis identified independent risk factors, enabling the construction of nomograms. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves were used to evaluate the accuracy of the nomograms. Decision curve analysis (DCA) assessed the predictive value of the models.

RESULTS

Patients were categorized into GPR-low and GPR-high groups based on a GPR value of 333.33. Significant differences in PFS and OS were observed between the two groups (both P < 0.001). Cox multivariate analysis identified GPR as an independent risk factor for both PFS (OR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.24-2.60, P = 0.002) and OS (OR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.07-3.26, P = 0.029). The nomograms demonstrated good predictive performance, with C-index values of 0.69 for PFS and 0.76 for OS. Time-dependent ROC curves and calibration curves revealed the accuracy of the models in both the training and validation cohorts, with DCA results indicating notable clinical value.

CONCLUSIONS

GPR emerged as an independent risk factor for both OS and PFS in HCC patients without microvascular invasion. The nomograms based on GPR demonstrated relatively robust predictive efficiency for prognosis.