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HR+ HER- 乳腺癌预后列线图的开发与验证

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for HR+ HER- Breast Cancer.

作者信息

Zhou Jie-Yu, Pan Cheng-Geng, Ye Yang, Li Zhi-Wei, Fu Wei-Da, Jiang Bin-Hao

机构信息

Department of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, The Wenzhou Central Hospital, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, 325000, People's Republic of China.

Department of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, 315000, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

Cancer Manag Res. 2024 May 21;16:491-505. doi: 10.2147/CMAR.S459714. eCollection 2024.

DOI:10.2147/CMAR.S459714
PMID:38800665
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11127650/
Abstract

PURPOSE

We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict prognosis of HR+ HER2- breast cancer patients and guide the application of postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy.

METHODS

We identified 310 eligible HR+ HER- breast cancer patients and randomly divided the database into a training group and a validation group. The endpoint was disease free survival (DFS). Concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curves were used to evaluate predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram. We also compared the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of our nomogram with the eighth AJCC staging system using overall data.

RESULTS

According to the training group, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), tumor size, positive lymph nodes and Ki-67 index were used to construct the nomogram of DFS. The C-index of DFS was 0.708 (95% CI: 0.623-0.793) in the training group and 0.67 (95% CI: 0.544-0.796) in the validation group. The calibration curves revealed great consistencies in both groups.

CONCLUSION

We have developed and validated a novel and practical nomogram that can provide individual prediction of DFS for patients with HR+ HER- breast cancer. This nomogram may help clinicians in risk consulting and guiding the application of postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy.

摘要

目的

我们旨在开发一种列线图，以预测HR+HER2-乳腺癌患者的预后，并指导术后辅助化疗的应用。

方法

我们确定了310例符合条件的HR+HER-乳腺癌患者，并将数据库随机分为训练组和验证组。终点为无病生存期（DFS）。一致性指数（C-index）、曲线下面积（AUC）和校准曲线用于评估列线图的预测准确性和鉴别能力。我们还使用总体数据比较了我们的列线图与第八版AJCC分期系统的预测准确性和鉴别能力。

结果

根据训练组，使用血小板与淋巴细胞比值（PLR）、肿瘤大小、阳性淋巴结和Ki-67指数构建DFS列线图。训练组中DFS的C-index为0.708（95%CI：0.623-0.793），验证组中为0.67（95%CI：0.544-0.796）。校准曲线显示两组具有高度一致性。

结论

我们开发并验证了一种新颖实用的列线图，可为HR+HER-乳腺癌患者提供DFS的个体预测。该列线图可能有助于临床医生进行风险咨询和指导术后辅助化疗的应用。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3d95/11127650/d7495eb28192/CMAR-16-491-g0006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3d95/11127650/72d4ea90a0e5/CMAR-16-491-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3d95/11127650/eacf9224e01b/CMAR-16-491-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3d95/11127650/38ebe9cc1db7/CMAR-16-491-g0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3d95/11127650/043b07eef86d/CMAR-16-491-g0004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3d95/11127650/8a2b372451e4/CMAR-16-491-g0005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3d95/11127650/d7495eb28192/CMAR-16-491-g0006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3d95/11127650/72d4ea90a0e5/CMAR-16-491-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3d95/11127650/eacf9224e01b/CMAR-16-491-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3d95/11127650/38ebe9cc1db7/CMAR-16-491-g0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3d95/11127650/043b07eef86d/CMAR-16-491-g0004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3d95/11127650/8a2b372451e4/CMAR-16-491-g0005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3d95/11127650/d7495eb28192/CMAR-16-491-g0006.jpg

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