Faculty of Forestry, Institute of Geomatics and Civil Engineering, University of Sopron, Sopron, Hungary.
Department of Forest and Environment, Faculty of Forest Science and Technology, University of Gezira, Wad Madani, Sudan.
PLoS One. 2024 May 30;19(5):e0304034. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0304034. eCollection 2024.
Internal displacement of populations due to armed conflicts can substantially impact a region's Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) and the efforts towards the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The objective of this study was to determine the effects of conflict-driven Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) on vegetation cover and environmental sustainability in the Kas locality of Darfur, Sudan. Supervised classification and change analysis were performed on Sentinel-2 satellite images for the years 2016 and 2022 using QGIS software. The Sentinel-2 Level 2A data were analysed using the Random Forest (RF) Machine Learning (ML) classifier. Five land cover types were successfully classified (agricultural land, vegetation cover, built-up area, sand, and bareland) with overall accuracies of more than 86% and Kappa coefficients greater than 0.74. The results revealed a 35.33% (-10.20 km2) decline in vegetation cover area over the six-year study period, equivalent to an average annual loss rate of -5.89% (-1.70 km2) of vegetation cover. In contrast, agricultural land and built-up areas increased by 17.53% (98.12 km2) and 60.53% (5.29 km2) respectively between the two study years. The trends of the changes among different LULC classes suggest potential influences of human activities especially the IDPs, natural processes, and a combination of both in the study area. This study highlights the impacts of IDPs on natural resources and land cover patterns in a conflict-affected region. It also offers pertinent data that can support decision-makers in restoring the affected areas and preventing further environmental degradation for sustainability.
由于武装冲突而导致的人口内部流离失所，可能会对一个地区的土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）以及实现可持续发展目标（SDGs）的努力产生重大影响。本研究的目的是确定冲突驱动的境内流离失所者（IDPs）对苏丹达尔富尔卡萨拉地区植被覆盖和环境可持续性的影响。使用 QGIS 软件对 2016 年和 2022 年的 Sentinel-2 卫星图像进行了监督分类和变化分析。使用随机森林（RF）机器学习（ML）分类器对 Sentinel-2 二级 A 数据进行了分析。成功地对五类土地覆盖类型进行了分类（农业用地、植被覆盖、建成区、沙地和裸地），总体准确率超过 86%，Kappa 系数大于 0.74。结果显示，在六年的研究期间，植被覆盖面积减少了 35.33%（-10.20 平方公里），相当于植被覆盖的年平均损失率为-5.89%（-1.70 平方公里）。相比之下，农业用地和建成区在这两年间分别增加了 17.53%（98.12 平方公里）和 60.53%（5.29 平方公里）。不同土地利用/土地覆盖类型变化的趋势表明，人类活动，特别是境内流离失所者、自然过程以及两者的综合影响，对研究区域的自然资源和土地覆盖模式产生了潜在影响。本研究强调了境内流离失所者对冲突影响地区自然资源和土地覆盖模式的影响。它还提供了相关数据，可以支持决策者在恢复受影响地区和防止进一步环境退化以实现可持续性方面做出决策。
